The Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship

From a personal point of view it was a fantastic week in the sun at TPC Sawgrass with the event once again delivering a thrilling conclusion as it so often does.

Congratulations then to Scottie Scheffler who became the first player to successfully defend The Players title while going back to back after his win last week at Bay Hill. He clearly has separated himself from the rest now and regardless of who plays on what tour there is no doubting he is the world’s number one.

Superb then as Scheffler was unfortunately he was our nemesis for the second week running as after seeing off our man Wyndham Clark at Bay Hill he did the same thing at Sawgrass to our headline pick Xander Schauffele, pipping both him and the once again hugely impressive Clark by a single shot.

With two of our longer priced picks Ghim and Conners unable to bag places on Sunday either it was that feeling of Déjà vu for us once more.

So after four consecutive weeks of near misses we head off Tampa and the Valspar Championship in search of a long overdue winner and I am delighted to say I’ll once again be at the event in person.

The tournament is played at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor near Tampa.

The event, which was cancelled in 2020 due to the pandemic, had a regular slot over the past decade as part of the March Florida Swing, however in 2021 it moved to a May slot as part of a rejigged schedule. Last year however it returned to its traditional slot in march.

The market is headed up by last weeks nearly man Xander Schauffele and it remains to be seen if he can pick himself up off the floor following the Sawgrass disappointment. Schauffele is then followed by two time champion here Sam Burns, Justin Thomas who looks to bounce back from his poor Sawgrass effort and Jordan Spieth in what is a strong field.

COURSE

The Copperhead Course is no push over and offers a tough examination of a players game.

It is dissimilar to Florida courses as a whole as it is a tight driving course with tree lined fairways, plenty of elevation and dog-legs.

It has in the past been likened by players to having more of a feel of a ‘Carolinas’ course than Florida.

The course is a par 71 playing at just 7300yds. The course is unusual in that it has four par 5s as per normal but five par 3s.

The greens are tiff eagle Bermuda.

The signature area of the course is the finishing 3 holes which are known as ‘ The Snake Pit’.

This stretch is made up of two par 4s and the par 3 17^th.

HISTORY

Of all the events on the PGA Tour this is one of the toughest to get a handle on from the type of player who wins or indeed the winning score to expect.

Let’s firstly take a look at the last ten winners here;

2023 T Moore

2022 S Burns

2021 S Burns

2019 P Casey

2018 P Casey    

2017 A Hadwin 

2016 C Schwartzel

2015 J Spieth

2014 J Senden

2013 K Streelman

As we can see there have been wins for major champions Spieth, Schwartzel and Jim Furyk, while Gary Woodland won here in 2011 and[Retief Goosen won here in 2009, there have wins for renowned ball strikers like double champion Paul Casey , John Senden & Kevin Streelman, which was followed the next year by a win for Luke Donald, and maiden PGA Tour wins for Adam Hadwin, Kevin Streelman and Taylor Moore last year.

Finally Sam Burns, another player known for his tee to green strengths bagged his maiden tour title here in 2021 before matching Paul Casey’s feat by defending in 2022.

Furthermore a look at some of those who have found the frame over the past couple of years including Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Nesmith and Justin Thomas, again show us players known for their ball striking strength flourish here.

All in all then strong tee to green and approach play in particular appears to be what is needed here with  Casey having ranked seventh in SGATTG for both of his two victorious years and first and sixth from tee to green across the two years, while the previous two winners Hadwin and Schwartzel were both ranked in the top three for the week in approach play.

Sam Burns was also undoubtedly solid from tee to green ranking fifth in this department in 2021 when he triumphed and 14^th in approach play however he was also strong on the greens ranking third with the putter. Basically it was a great all round performance from the young star.

I would though treat the 2021 edition with slight caution though as the move to may made the course play slightly easier than normal, something reflected in Burns’ winning score of 17- under.

That said of course Burns backed this up last year and again it was his approach play that shone as he ranked third in this area for the week.

Last year though when scoring was tougher again Moore ranked second from tee to green and fifth in Approach play.

Looking more at the role of honour over the recent years in relation to course form will also leave one slightly confused as well as the following list of the last ten winners shows here and their previous course form shows.

T Moore  MC

S Burns     1 30 12

S Burns     30 12

P Casey     1 MC MC 37

P Casey     MC MC 37

A Hadwin  MC 71

C Schwartzel MC

J Spieth 20 7

J Senden M/C 38 15 28

K Streelman 10 MC MC

As you can see prior to Casey defending the trophy in 2019 and Burns doing the same in 2022 only two of these winners had notched a previous top 10 here.

Whether coincidence or not there have been five international winners in the last nine years so this may well be a point to note.

Perhaps the biggest clue where to look for the winner can be found in the recent form of the past winners coming in to the event.

Again taking the last ten winners as a sample, Woodland & Donald had both finished 6^th in their previous starts in Florida, Spieth had finished 17^th & 7^th in his two previous starts, Hadwin had not missed a cut all season and had come close to winning at the Career Builder, Schwartzel had won twice on the European Tour that year already and had finished 17^th at Doral the week before. As for Casey he had two top 12s in in his previous three starts in 2018 including 12^th the week before at the WGC Mexico and in 2019 he had two top three’s in his previous four starts including a third in Mexico. Burns had finished fourth in the Zurich pairs event the week before triumphing here in 2021 while in 2022 he had produced two solid efforts in Florida finishing ninth and 26^th at the API and Players respectively.

Finally to bring us up to date last year Moore had made five of his previous six cuts including three top 15 finishes while the previous week he had posted a solid 35^th at The Players including a Saturday 65.

The clues were less obvious from Streelman and Senden, although Senden had only missed one cut all season and Streelman did have a top 10 to his name earlier in the year.

All in all though it would seem what you should look for at Copperhead is a player who is in control of all parts of his game coming in to the event.

In other words Copperhead being a venue that tests all components of your game is not somewhere where you find your form. You need to be in it when you get there.

Finally since the event moved to a March slot in 2007 there have been winning scores in March ranging from as high as -4 when Sean O’Hair won in 2008 to -15 when Gary Woodland won in 2011.

Jordan Spieth won with -10 in 2015, Charl Schwartzel with -7 in 2016,  Adam Hadwin with -14 in 2017, whilst it was -8 and -10 for Paul Casey over his two wins. Sam Burns has produced far lower winning totals of 17- under on both occasions, however things were tougher again for Moore who triumphed last year on 10- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

Temperatures look set to sit around the mid to high 70s for most of the week and we look set for a dry week as a whole.

The one exception though could well be Friday where persistent rain is in the forecast with the potential for storms. After that things clear up nicely for the weekend.

Wind also looks like it could be a bit of an issue with gusts of 20mph + a possibility particularly on Friday.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

JUSTIN THOMAS – 16/1 – 4pts Win. - FINISHED 64th

I’m going to start things off this week by giving another chance to Justin Thomas.

We were on JT last week and there was no denying he was hugely disappointing in missing his first ever cut at TPC.

A closer look at his numbers though show the damage was clearly done on the greens as he ranked 12^th & 15^th on Thursday and Friday respectively in approach play while 72^nd and 138^th on the dance floor!

Thomas will no doubt be smarting from that effort however this week he returns to a venue that he is clearly at home at having finished 10 3 and 13 last three years.

Last years tenth here came on the back of a 60^th at the Players and only one effort better than 20^th in the year previously so his form is certainly better overall this year coming in.

I’m happy to stick with JT then and trust him on a course, which suits his ball striking strengths to bounce back this week.

SEPP STRAKA – 60/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up I will take the hint from Sepp Straka’s uptick in form at Sawgrass and chance the two time Tour winner here.

Another known for his ball striking strengths Sepp really should be a great fit for the Copperhead layout and having opened with a 66 here back in 2019 on his only previous visit the signs are promising.

A winner in Florida at the Honda and a winner at the John Deere, which correlates nicely here through John Senden and Jordan Spieth who have triumphed on both tracks over recent years the Austrian has good correlating form.

Sepp ranked third in good old fashioned GIR and 16^th in approach play at Sawgrass last week and as a player who tends to thrive on momentum I’m happy to jump on board this week.

MAVERICK MCNEALY –  60/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 45th

As highlighted earlier good solid recent form is often a strong pointer to success here and on that basis I was delighted to see what I perceive as generous odds on Maverick McNealy.

McNealy has clearly put last years injury woes behind him now and he arrives here on the back of six straight made cuts including three top 13s in his last four outings.

Ninth at last weeks Players was clearly another big step forward for Maverick and surely now it is only a matter of time until he delivers that first win.

Working with Butch Harmon has also clearly been a big plus for Maverick and while his approach play is still his weak link he is making strides forward in this area as shown by his day one ranking of 19^th at Sawgrass in this area. Ultimately though McNealy is a hugely talented player for whom everything will click one week and having finished 36^th here last year on debut when in the midst of injury and in no form at all I am very keen to be onboard this week.

TAYLOR MOORE –  70/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 12th

Next up I am going to return to the hero for us last year here Taylor Moore.

I sided with Moore here last year as he had produced some good solid numbers and consistent finishes on the Florida swing up to that point and he certainly delivered in spades.

Returning this year then it is a very similar story for Moore as he has made every cut this year but aside from his 25^th at The Sentry has failed to post a top 30.

Last week though Taylor posted four rounds of par or better on his way to a solid 31^st at Sawgrass with only the putter holding him back slightly.

It wont be lost on Moore that both Casey and Burns have gone back to back here over recent years and with similar blustery conditions to, which he thrived in last year in the forecast I am happy to chance him to do the same.

MATTHEW NESMITH –  125/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Another player who caught the eye last week was Matthew NeSmith and with his ball striking strengths having flourished here before he looks juicy each way value this week.

2024 has been tough to date for Matthew however his 26^th at Sawgrass represented a huge uptick on any thing previous this year.

NeSmith strangely skipped this event last year however 2022 saw him post a 61 on his way to a third place finish when in no form coming in while his debut effort here of 21^st the previous year also showed plenty of promise.

A player who has knocked on the door of a win on several occasions over the years I’ll take the hint from last week and chance Matthew here.

RYAN MOORE – 175/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 5th

Finally this week in a case of the Moore the merrier I’ll join Taylor Moore with his namesake Ryan in our team.

After his Fall heroics last year to retain his card it has been surprising to see Ryan struggle early in 2024. Of late though there have been more promising signs.

Firstly he made is first cut of the year in Mexico and then he opened with a 65 at the Honda before a really disappointing Friday saw him miss the cut.

Last week though at Sawgrass Ryan played nicely to finish 45^th ranking an eye catching ninth in approach play alongside his usual accuracy off the tee. Unfortunately though the putter for, which he was ranked 71^st held him back.

A course, which Moore’s lack of length does not dis-advantage him on Ryan has previous at Copperhead with two top five finishes in years gone by and if he can just improve on the greens from last week he could have another big performance in him here.