RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage

It was an excellent week for us at the Masters as we landed the ‘big fish’ on the opening day courtesy of backing Justin Rose at 70/1 to be round one leader.

The Englishman opened with a scintillating 65 to take a three shot lead on the first day and as know he rode that wave all the way to the end before ultimately missing out in a play off. Add in a third place finish for 66/1 shot Patrick Reed and we can have no complaints.

Enough of our bets though as obviously we should be focusing on the real headline maker Rory McIlroy. The Northern Irishman produced a stunning performance over the four days to finally bag a Green Jacket and his place in golfing immortality as he became just the sixth player to complete the Grand Slam.

Sunday’s final round will go down as one of the most memorable days in golfing history and I can’t begin to do it justice here in a few lines. Instead then I will simply say it was sporting drama at its finest and will never be forgotten.

So we move on and after the tension and high pressure stakes of Augusta the tour heads to one of the most iconic stops of the year, the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head.

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head has been the host course for the Heritage since 1969 and with the exception of 2020 when the schedule was re jigged due to the Covid-19 pandemic the event has pretty much owned its traditional slot of the week following the Masters since 1983.

The current sponsors RBC [Royal Bank of Canada] have been in place since 2012.

For the second year running the event has been given ‘Signature Event’ status and for the second year running the tournament has been reduced to a limited field, no cut event with seventy players scheduled to tee it up. The field will be made up of the top 50 qualifiers from the end of last season, the Next 10, the Swing 5 and sponsor exemptions.

As you would expect for an elevated event we have a very strong field on display. The big exception to this is newly crowned Masters Champion will not be in attendance while Hideki Matsuyama has also chosen to skip the event.

The market is dominated by Scottie Scheffler, the Texan is then followed by Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele.

COURSE

Harbour Town is a par 71 measuring just on 7100 yards.

The course is a Pete Dye Design so do look at form on other Pete Dye courses currently played on tour, particularly TPC Sawgrass as well TPC River Highlands and the Stadium Course used for the American Express.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

Harbour Town is known as one of the most unique tests played on the PGA tour all year. It is seen as a Marmite type of course, the players either love it or hate it. Some players go there once and say “never again”, to others it’s their favourite stop on the tour all year.

What makes Harbour Town so different is the precision required of the tee. length is not important but positioning of your tee ball is.

Finding the fairway isn’t enough at Harbour Town. On most holes finding the correct portion of the fairway is key as otherwise you will be blocked out on your second shot by the trees.

It’s for this reason that shorter hitting, precision players such as Kuchar, Furyk, Gay and Donald have peppered the leader boards over the years.

In addition as players will inevitably miss their fair share of the smaller than average greens scrambling is a key stat this week and one that recent winners here have tended to feature highly on for the week.

Harbour Town is also a true links test with winds normally blowing to 20mph + at some stage of the week.

HISTORY

When assessing this event historically the most significant factor to weigh up is the mental fatigue that players feel when arriving here on the back of an arduous week at Augusta and there is no doubt this point has had a big bearing on the outcome here over the years.

Therefore while this was not relevant in 2020 due to the events revised slot in the schedule every other year over the recent decades it has been a key factor this year.

It’s a recognised fact that winning back to back on the PGA Tour is an incredibly tough thing to do and prior to last year Bernhard Langer was the only player to notch ‘back to back’ wins at Augusta and Hilton Head [in 1985]. Last year of course though Scottie Scheffler rewrote this rule book as he did many last season and landed the Plaid Jacket the week after bagging his second Green one.

Throw in the mental reserves required to compete and contend right in the thick of a Major over the weekend and it is not unsurprising though that winners at Harbour Town as a rule tend not to have been in the hunt at Augusta the week before. To back this up let’s look at the recent winners at HH and see how they fared at the Masters.

Winner - Masters Finish

2024 Scottie Scheffler 1^st!

 2023 M Fitzpatrick     10

2022  J Spieth               MC

2021  S Cink                   12^th

2020 W Simpson [Not played in traditional post Masters slot.]

2019    CT Pan             DNP

2018    S Kodaira          28th

2017    W Bryan            DNP

2016    B Grace           MC

2015    J Furyk             MC

2014    M Kuchar        5th

2013    G McDowell    MC

2012    C Pettersson   DNP

So, as we can see if we put the 2020 edition to one side when the event did not directly follow the Masters in the other 12 outings noted only four players, Stewart Cink in 2021, Matt Kuchar and Scheffler last year have won at Harbour Town after featuring near the top end of the leaderboard at Augusta the week before.

Of the other 8 winners one of them, Kodaira in 2018, played all four rounds at Augusta, five of them including Spieth in 2022 missed the cut and the other three had not been in the Masters field at all.

Furthermore if we look at the 2020 RSM Classic the event that followed the 2020 Masters in the schedule and we’ll see that this was won by Robert Streb, another player who didn’t tee it up at Augusta.

So the message is clear, do not be put off if the player you fancy for the week performed badly at the Masters, In fact the opposite seems to apply, as it is possible if your hunch for the week performed well at Augusta they will turn up at Harbour Town jaded and will under-perform.

The one curve ball of course I should point out is that with the event now having limited field elevated status, we have a smaller field with a stronger line up of, which a far greater percentage played at Augusta the previous week compared to years gone by. It is therefore much more likely that we see a continuation of a big name who played at Augusta winning following on from Fitzpatrick’s win in 2023 and Scheffler last year.

So what more can we tell from this list? well firstly for want of stating the blindingly obvious Hilton Head is not a course that historically has rewarded the bombers of the game, on the contrary short and straight has always been the order of the day and with the exception of Branden Grace and Cink, who as a two time former winner could be considered something of a course specialist, you would have to go a long way down the driving distance charts each year to find the above 11 names.

With regards to the relevancy of previous course form here we have a bit of a mixed bag. Some players like Spieth, Cink, Furyk, Kuchar and more recently Grace and Simpson clearly seem to perform well here consistently, however the 2018 and 2017 winners, Kodaira and Bryan, were making their debut in the event, while the 2018 winner CT Pan had finishes of 44 and 23 in his two previous starts.

2023 winner Fitzpatrick is a self-confessed lover of Hilton Head, having spent family holidays here growing up. Add this to the fact he plays the event every year and had a previous best of fourth here and his win was no surprise. Finally Scheffler last year while only making his second appearance here had finished 11^th in 2023 to show he was comfortable round here.

As noted earlier with the event taking on ‘elevated event’ status we now do have a different dynamic in play.

That said it is clear that without this status and the money it offers this would not potentially be on the schedule for the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele and Aberg and it was very noticeable to me that in 2023 even with other big names in the field like Rahm and Scheffler the finish was ultimately played out by three big name regulars here, Fitzpatrick, Spieth and Cantlay.

With regards to form coming in as touched on above this is muddled by the Augusta factor, however it is worth noting that only three of the past eight winners, Scheffler last year, Fitzpatrick and Cink in 2021, had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts and in 2019 CT Pan pitched up here having finished no better than 42^nd in the calendar year to date before taking home the trophy. In 2020 with the event being the second back Simpson won having missed the cut at the Charles Schwab the previous week however if we go back further the 2014 and 2012 winners, Kuchar and Pettersson had posted a top ten in their start prior to victory here.

Meanwhile Spieth triumphed in 2022 on the back of nothing better than 26^th in his previous six starts.

From a correlating course form point of view the obvious ones to look at are other short coastal tracks such as Sea Island home of the RSM Classis or Waialae home of the Sony Open. In addition form on other Pete Dye layouts such as TPC River Highlands or TPC Sawgrass is certainly worth considering.

Not unsurprisingly for a coastal course the winning score tends to be dictated by the weather and how much the wind blows.

The lowest winning score over the past ten years was delivered by Simpson in 2020 who triumphed with a -22 total. The lowest total when the event has been played in its traditional April slot came from Cink in 2021 when he shot -19., which was matched by Scheffler last year.

The average winning score though tends to come in around -13 or -12 although Fitzpatrick and Spieth both posted 17- under last year.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a warm dry sunny week with temperatures hitting the 80s from Friday and over the weekend.

The wind, which is the most important factor here, looks like it will keep the players honest with 15-20mph gusts a possibility in the forecast all week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

JUSTIN THOMAS –  18/1 - 3pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FINISHED 1st!!!

Justin Thomas looks incredibly close to a return to the winners enclosure on the PGA Tour and I will take him to finally get over the line here again this week.

JT is in the midst of an incredibly consistent season, which has seen him notch four top tens to date and miss no cuts.

The most recent of those top tens came in his last start prior to the Masters at the Valspar where having looked to be on the verge of bagging that win he was pipped down the stretch by Viktor Hovland. Still though it was another hugely encouraging performance from Thomas.

What was particularly encouraging that week was that while his long game was working well, the putter so often the issue for Justin of late, finally warmed up again as he ranked third on the greens.

Justin arrives here after a low key week at Augusta, which saw him never get really in the hunt before finishing 36^th. He did though save his best score till Sunday so that should give him some encouragement.

I am not going to get too hung up on this though as, as we know it has proved far more beneficial over the years to arrive here without being mentalyl drained after a big week in the hunt at the Masters.

Instead then I’ll focus on Thomas’ history both on this track and indeed other correlating venues. Firstly in relation to here he has two top tens in his past four visits including a fifth place last year.

Away from Hilton Head we can then take confidence from the fact that JT is a former Players champion at the Pete Dye designed TPC Sawgrass, while he is also a winner at Waialae a short Par 70, which hosts the Sony Open. Clearly then Justin is comfortable on a shorter track where precision rather than power is key.

I’ll take JT this week then to build on his recent strong form and finally add to his PGA Tour trophy cabinet.

.

MAVERICK MCNEALY –  50/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED T3rd

Next up I will turn to Maverick McNealy.

McNealy has quietly turned in to the player everyone expected him to be when he burst on to the tour fresh out of Stanford and he has now risen to tenth on the OWGR.

The back end of 2024 saw Maverick land his first PGA Tour title when winning by the coast at the short Sea Island tracks in the RSM and this immediately makes him of interest for this week. Add that performance to the fact that he has a great record at Pebble Berach, where he spent a lot of time growing up, and that he has top ten’s at Mayakoba and Waialae CC to his name and Maverick has clearly shown us in his time to date on tour that he is comfortable on shortish coastal tracks in general.

Furthermore the icing on the cake is that McNealy has a fourth place finish here on his resume in 2021.

McNealy made his debut at Augusta last week posting a more than respectable 32^nd place finish, however prior to that he finished third at the Valero. Add that to a runner up finish in the Signature Event at Torrey Pines earlier in the year and a ninth at Phoenix and it is clear he knocking on the door of a second tour win.

Maverick showed when second in the Genesis that he has the game to compete at this top tier of event and I am keen to have him on side this week at a venue, which should suit him well.

MAX GREYSERMAN – 110/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 27th

Next for me this week I will take another chance on Max Greyserman.

I sided with Greyserman recently in Houston and it was fair to say he was disappointing in missing the cut.

Having also missed the cut on his previous start at TPC Sawgrass it could be argued there is a concern that Max is slipping in to a sophomore season slump, however he should take plenty of encouragement that he then bounced back nicely to finish 32^nd on his Masters debut last week.

On to this week then and what I really like about Greyserman here is that on his debut season he showed a strong liking for shorter and/or coastal layouts, notching a 15^th in Puerto Rico earlier in the year, a second at the Wyndham, a second at the Zozo and a fourth at the World Wide Technology Championship. Meanwhile this year he has an 11^th to his name by the coast at the Cognizant.

Max’s biggest strength is with the putter so if the wind doesn’t pick up too much this week and we see a ‘putting contest’ he could be very much in his element, meanwhile as a Duke graduate he should be very much at home in the Carolinas.

I’ll take Max at juicy odds then to thrive this week on his Hilton Head tournament debut.

RYO HISATSUNE –  125/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 18th

Finally I will wrap things up with Ryo Hisatsune.

Hisatsune is in to his second season on the PGA Tour and having comfortably held on to his card finishing 84^th in last seasons Fedex standings he is pushing on this year again with three top tens to his name already.

A winner on the DP World Tour at the accuracy requiring Le Golf National in Paris, Ryo makes his money through accuracy over power. Something that can be seen by the fact that he sits 47^th in the former this season on tour and 127^th in the latter. It should also be noted that the Japanese star is gaining shots all across the bag so far this season.

The 22yr olds best finish last season came at the Wyndham where he was third, while he also added a 17^th at the RSM in the Fall, so even though this is his debut at Harbour Town I expect this to be a perfect test for him. I also like the fact that he has some good history on the tight tree lined Club Narashino track host of the ZOZO back in Japan.

Ryo arrives here on the back of two top five finishes in his last three starts at The Valspar and the Valero, and having had a weeks rest while the games leading names were battling away at Augusta he could just make a big impact here at big odds.