PGA Championship
PGA Championship
May 12, 2025PGA Championship
As regular readers will know I am currently in the US and attended last weeks opposite field Myrtle Beach PGA event. It was a thoroughly enjoyable week despite the rain and the fact that unfortunately we didn’t have any joy with our selections, with the one pick of ours who was in the hunt come Sunday, Danny Walker, having a poor final day.
The event was won by Ryan Fox who triumphed in a three man play off over Mackenzie Hughes and Harry Higgs with the former having missed a par putt of about 10ft on the last to win in regulation. Fox then seized his opportunity by chipping in for birdie on the first play off hole.
Over on the big stage we had a Signature Event in play in Philadelphia. As I was in Myrte Beach I didn’t see any of the action so all I can really say is that Sepp Straka continued his stratospheric rise by bagging his second trophy of the year after seeing off Shane Lowry in a Sunday dual. Meanwhile from our end of things we bagged a full place return with Patrick Cantlay to cover our week in the event.
So on we go and I have headed from South Carolina to North Carolina for the second Major Championship of the year, the USPGA.
This year’s edition will be the 107th playing of the Championship and the venue that gets the honour of hosting is Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The course has hosted the PGA Championship on one previous occasion in 2017 when Justin Thomas triumphed while it also played host to the Presidents Cup in 2022.
As you would expect for a Major the field is a stellar one.
In addition as is tradition for the PGA Championship in amongst the 150 or so who will start the event on Thursday will be around 20 PGA of America club professionals.
The market is headed up by the world number one and two Scottie Scheffler and the newly anointed winner of the Grand Slam Rory McIlroy who are vying for favouritism at single figure odds. This duo are then followed in the market by Bryson Dechambeau who is a clear third favourite, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, John Rahm and Collin Morikawa.
COURSE
The course is a George Cobb design, which has undergone subsequent redesigns under the supervision of Tom Fazio both in 2013 and 2016.
The course is a Par 71 and measures 7600 yards.
One important point to note is that from 2003 until 2016 the course played as a par 72 playing at just under 7600 yards but following the Fazio redesign prior to the hosting of the 2017 PGA Championship the course was changed to a Par 71.
This change was effected by reducing the 570 yard Par 5 5th to a 450 yard Par 4.
Following on from this the Par 4 1st hole was lengthened by approximately 100 yards to measure just over 520 yards. The par 3 2nd hole disappeared completely and a new Par 3 4th hole was built to replace this.
The greens are Champion Bermudagrass. These were changed from Miniverde Bermuda again in the run up to the 2017 PGA Championship.
With the course then now measuring over 7600 yards expect, as is normally the case with the PGA, for length off the tee to be key.
HISTORY
So let’s take a look at the winners of the USPGA since 2011.
The winners have been as follows;
2024 X Schauffele
2023 B Koepka
2022 J Thomas
2021 P Mickelson
2020 C Morikawa
2019** B Koepka
2018 B Koepka
2017 J Thomas
2016* J Walker
2015 J Day
2014 R McIlroy
2013 J Dufner
2012 R McIlroy
2011 K Bradley
The first thing that springs to mind looking at this list is that a strong finish right before the PGA if you are going to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
To expand on this further the previous ten winners of the PGA prior to the 2019 move had played in the WGC Bridgestone and the worst finish recorded by any of them was in 2017 by Justin Thomas who finished 28th in Akron.
Then in 2019 Brooks Koepka finished fourth at the Byron Nelson the week prior to his victory at Bethpage.
Finally in 2020 prior to his win at Harding Park Collin Morikawa tuned up by finishing 20th at the WGC Fedex St Jude with, allowing for a wonderful dollop of hindsight his weekend of 67 66, which saw him climb the leaderboard particularly eye catching.
2021 winner, Mickelson, bucked this trend [as he did many of the other historical ones!] as he only managed a 69th place in his previous start at the Wells Fargo and prior to that his form through 2021 had been poor. In 2022 it was back to the norm as Justin Thomas warmed up for his victory at Southern Hills with a fifth place finish the week before at the Byron Nelson.
In 2023 Koepka then landed the PGA at Oak Hill when we were onboard, having finished fifth in LIV Tulsa in his previous start. Finally to bring us up to date Xander Schauffele landed his maiden Major title last year on the back of a runner up finish, which coincidentally came at this venue the week before.
Talking of, which and of course the other thing we need to very much factor in this year is that the host venue Quail Hollow is the regular host of a PGA Tour event, the Truist Championship [formerly the Wells Fargo.] Lets then take a look at the PGA Tour event winners at Quail Hollow going back to 2010.
2024 Rory McIlroy
2023 Wyndham Clark
2021 Rory McIlroy
2019 Max Homa
2018 Jason Day
2016 James Hahn
2015 Rory McIlroy
2014 JB Holmes
2013 Derek Ernst
2012 Rickie Fowler
2011 Lucas Glover
2010 Rory McIlroy
The name that sticks out here of course is Rory McIlroy, who is a four time course winner and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rory start a marginal favourite this week as Scheffler will be making his course debut. How much can we glean though from previous course form here? Well in 2017 Justin Thomas bagged the PGA here on the back of a MC and a seventh place in his two previous visits.
WEATHER FORECAST
As I can attest to it has a been a period of very unsettled weather in the Carolina’s over the past week and this will continue through the early part of this week with Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday all showing the potential for rain & storms. Fortunately as things stand once we get to tournament days the forecast improves with it currently showing for four dry days. Let’s hope it stays that way!
Temperatures look set to sit in the mid to high 80s all week while wind could be a factor with 20mph+ gusts forecast.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with six players this week as follows;
XANDER SCHAUFFELE – 18/1 – 2.5pts E/W 1/5 1st 10
I will start things off this week with Xander Schauffele.
Xander has had a quiet start to the year following an early season injury. He is now starting to rend nicely though with four top 20s in his past four starts including eighth at the Masters.
Eleventh last week at the Truist was the perfect warm up and with two runner up finishes in his last two starts at Qual Hollow I can see him making a bold effort to defend his trophy from last year.
JUSTIN THOMAS – 18/1 –2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
At the same odds to Schauffele I can’t ignore a resurgent Justin Thomas. JT has been playing some excellent stuff for a while now with the only thing lacking a win. He put that to right though at Hilton Head two starts ago and then produced another strong week in Philadelphia last week when finishing in a tie for second.
Thomas bagged his first Major here at Quail Hollow in 2017 so he is sure to have great vibes coming in to the week and I expect him to go very close to winning here again.
TYRRELL HATTON – 1.5pts E/W – 40/1 – 1/5 odds 1st 8.
Next up I will chance Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton has finished fifth and 13th in his past two LIV starts while he was 14th at the years first Major in Augusta.
A winner in Dubai on the DP World Tour earlier this year Hatton has shown over the years that he thrives on a tough test, notably when winning at Bay Hill in 2020, a course that correlates well here.
A third place on his CV at Quail Hollow also gives encouragement and this looks a great opportunity for him to make a big push to land his first Major.
HARRIS ENGLISH – 1pt E/W – 150/1 – 1/5 odds 1st 8.
Moving on and another player who plays tough long courses well is Harris English.
English posted a win at Torrey Pines earlier this year while he notched a third at Bay Hill and a second here at Quail Hollow in 2023.
Arriving with three top 20s in his past four starts including 11th last week at the Truist English has continued to play strongly since his win in January and he looks good value to go well here at big odds.
KURT KITAYAMA - 200/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10
2023 Bay Hill winner Kurt Kitayama emerged from a run of poor form to finish fifth at Texas last time out.
One of the biggest hitters on Tour Kitayama should relish this weeks long tough test and having finished fourth in the 2023 PGA Championship buoyed by his recent return to form he could produce something similar here.
PATRICK RODGERS - 250/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10
Finally I can’t resist siding with our old friend Patrick Rodgers. Rodgers snuck in to last weeks Signature event at the 11th hour following Day’s withdrawal and he played solidly finish 42nd with four rounds of par or better. Notably his approach play, normally his weak link was working nicely.
Second on his debut at Quail Hollow Rodgers is another who enjoys a long tough test, something he showed when third in the Genesis at Torrey Pines earlier this year.
Rodgers has played solidly all year with just three missed cuts in 15 starts and he could just pop up in the frame at big odds this week.