US Open

The US Open

It was a poor week for us at the RBC Canadian Open with three of our team missing the cut and only Antoine Rozner ever threatening to get in to the conversation for us. The Frenchman produced a great ‘moving day’ to get in to the fringes of place contention however he stalled on Sunday with a closing 69 and our week was done.

The event itself was won by Ryan Fox who landed his second PGA Title in four starts after seeing off Sam Burns in a play off. Burns had stormed through the field on Sunday with a closing 62 and after all the other challengers fell away it was left to Fox to hole a 16ft putt on the 72^nd hole to force the play off. After both men missed chances to win Fox finally then saw off Burns on the fourth extra hole.

So onwards we go and it is time for the third of the four Major’s played over consecutive months, The US Open.

This year’s edition is the 125^th playing of the event and it sees us return to Oakmont CC in located in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Designed by Henry Fownes this will mark the tenth occasion the venue has hosted the US Open with the most recent editions in 2007 and 2016 seeing wins for Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson respectively.

As to be expected of course with a Major championship the field this week is a stellar one with the market dominated by Scottie Scheffler at 3/1 or less. Scheffler is then followed by Bryson Dechambeau who has overtaken Rory McIlroy as second favourite in the market after the latter struggled hugely in Canada. This trio are then closely followed by Jon Rahm with there then a gap in the market to around the 20/1 mark where we find Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg.

COURSE

Oakmont CC was designed by Henry Fownes and opened for business in 1907. The course has subsequently undergone redesigns under the guidance of Tom Fazio in 2015 and Gil Hanse in the run up to this years US Open.

A par 70 measuring just under 7400 yards and featuring two par 5s, the course features no water hazards, instead though it’s defence can be found in three areas, deep rough, which is not graduated off the tee, undulating fairways defended by deep bunkers, which are true penalties if you find them and sloping lightening fast greens.

The greens are Poa Annua.

Length off the tee has not historically been hugely important here but finding fairways will be. Short Iron and wedge play will also play its part this week with the course featuring its share of shorter par fours, while the two par fives may well be ‘three shot’ holes to reach the green for most of the field.

in addition who ever triumphs this week will have to have shown a great touch around the greens Those who remember the 2016 edition will note that Shane Lowry known for his ‘great hands’ around the green lead through 54 holes while both the winner that year Dustin Johnson and the 2007 winner Angel Cabrera are also Masters Champions where we know that touch around the greens is essential.

 HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the last ten winners.

2024 Bryson Dechambeau

2023 Wyndham Clark

2022 Matt Fitzpatrick

2021 Jon Rahm

2020 Bryson Dechambeau

2019 Gary Woodland

2018 Brooks Koepka

2017 Brooks Koepka

2016 Dustin Johnson

2015 Jordan Spieth

So what does this tell us? Well the first thing to say of course is that with the US Open operating a course rotation system it is usually a lot tougher to identify the type of player you are looking for year in year out compared to at Augusta, or at the British Open where you know you are getting a coastal links course.

In this major though you can go from a wide open links type test one year to a narrow fairway ball strikers course the next. In addition you can also get different green types dependent on the area of the US the event is being played in.

As a result over the years as examples we have seen Jordan Spieth prosper on a more exposed coastal links type track, we have seen Rose’s elite ball striking rewarded at Merion, we have seen Dustin Johnson be last man standing at a traditional US Open type test here, we have seen Koepka start his Major lovefest by bombing his way to victory at Erin Hills and we have seen Dechambeau use his length off the tee and brute strength to overpower Winged Foot. Finally we have seen Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick bag his first major at courses we already knew they loved.

Whilst the skill sets and the style of player we are looking for might vary to a certain extent year in year out one thing that does connect the recent winners in that they were all having good seasons and in decent form coming in to the event.

Lets look at this in a bit more detail.

Webb Simpson had posted a top 5 finish a few weeks prior at the Wells Fargo Championship and Rose had pieced together four top tens including two top 5s on the PGA Tour that year. Rory had finished 5^th at Memorial on his previous start, Koepka had made his last 6 cuts which included a 2^nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open in 2017 and he had finished second a fortnight before winning in 2018 at Fort Worth. DJ meanwhile had done everything but win prior to his victory in 2016 with seven Top 5 finishes in the year including two in his previous two starts.

Spieth, Kaymer and McDowell had all posted victories on tour that year already, whether in the US or in Europe, the 2019 winner Gary Woodland had finished eighth at the PGA Championship two starts prior to victory and most recently Bryson Dechambeau had produced a top five finish at the PGA Championship a month prior to his success.

While Rahm had not won on the PGA Tour in 20/21 prior to his triumph he had been robbed of a victory when holding a six shot lead at Memorial in his previous start through 54 holes at the Memorial before his enforced covid WD and had been eighth at the recent PGA.

2023 champion Wyndham Clark had landed his maiden PGA Tour win just a few weeks before at Quail Hollow. Finally last year Dechambeau triumphed having been runner up at the PGA Championship two starts prior.

Picking up on Rahm finishing eighth at the PGA it is worth noting that until last year since the PGA moved to being played pre US Open the four winners of the US Open in 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022, Woodland, Dechambeau, Rahm and Fitzpatrick had all finished top ten at the PGA. This run was broken in 2023 by Clark who missed the cut at Oak Hill in the PGA after his win at Quail Hollow, however as noted above Bryson continued this trend last year with a second place at the PGA before bagging his second US Open.

So in summary everyone of the past ten US Open winners had either had a victory or at least one top 5 finish on tour that season [In Bryson’s case in 2020 the top five at the PGA was in the previous season as the US Open was the second event of the official 20/21 calendar] and I expect this mantra of ‘good form coming in’ to stand true again this time around.

Therefore whilst you can’t rule out victory for a ‘mid division’ player like a Glover this player would need to be someone in decent form coming in as if history is anything to go by the US Open is not the sort of event where someone does  a ‘James Hahn’ and wins after missing their previous six or seven cuts.

Whilst it is more than likely the event will be won by a bigger named player it’s worth pointing out that the US Open in recent years has seen a bunch of big three figure priced players make the frame.

These include Mattieu Pavon last year, Denny McCarthy in 2023, Chesson Hadley in 2019, Harman, Schauffele and Fleetwood in 2017 [yup Tommy & Xander were still going off at triple digits back then!], Lowry, Piercy and Na the year before and Cam Smith the year before that.

Go back a bit further and we saw Eric Compton finishing 2^nd and Michael Thompson and now Real Estate Agent John Peterson making the frame at The Olympic Club, while in 2010 when Graeme McDowell was victorious at Pebble Beach unheralded Frenchman Gregory Havret chased him home.

In 2020 this was not so much the case although Will Zalatoris did make the frame at big odds however it is worth noting that 2020 did not see the opportunity for players to qualify in the same way as normal and this will no doubt have led to a more predictable flavour at the top of the leaderboard.

Again in 2021 this was not the case as the top ten was packed with big names/in form players such as Oosthuizen, English, Morikawa, Koepka, McIlroy, Schauffele, Berger and Scheffler, with only really Migliozzi and to a lesser extent Grace, breaking this stranglehold.

As a whole though the message over the years has been clear, with some bookies going 10 or 11 places e/w don’t be afraid to back a big three figure priced player e/w if you have a hunch for them.

WEATHER FORECAST

The early part of the week shows the chances for storms on Monday and Tuesday however the good news is once the tournament days arrive as we look set for dry conditions on Thursday and Friday at least. Saturday does show the chance for a shower or two though while Sunday unfortunately shows the risk of a storm. The course does though have a sub air system so they should be able to keep the greens nice and firm regardless!

Temperatures look set to sit in the mid to high 80s while wind does not look to be much of an issue with nothing more than 10-15mph in the forecast.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

JON RAHM – 12/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8.

Let’s be honest there is one overwhelming favourite this week who goes by the name of Scottie Scheffler. With three wins in his past four starts the world number one looks like he is getting on the kind of roll that we saw last year and there would be few who would bet against him bagging his first US Open this week.

If there is a weakness in Scheffler though it can be found on the greens at times, while of late he has had a tendency to pull his tee shots left.

Ultimately though he is head and shoulders above the rest at the moment and I would not look to put anyone off backing him, even at odds of sub 3/1.

To me though I am not inclined to backing players at those sort of odds in a Major, even someone of Scheffler’s class and In the spirit of this column then I will take the world’s number one on starting with Jon Rahm.

Rahm undoubtedly struggled initially to adapt to life on the LIV circuit last year in relation to his preparation for the Majors, however he posted a seventh place in the Open and followed that with 14^th at the Masters this spring.

Moving on then to Quail Hollow recently and after a strong opening 54 holes Rahm found himself right in the hunt on Sunday, tying Scheffler for the lead around the turn. Ultimately though the Texan did what he does to right the ship on the back nine and Rahm when pushing on the final holes to gain ground fell back in to eighth with two double bogeys. Still though, a really positive week for the Spaniard and I can’t help but think that the feeling of being right back in the mix again in a Major will have done him a lot of good. In addition of course that top ten for Rahm in Charlotte ticks the box I noted earlier of five of the six winners of the US Open having finished top ten at the PGA since it moved to its May slot.

Returning to Rahm’s profile for this week and one theme that has been clear on the two US Open editions this century at Oakmont is that players with a strong links golf record and a strong record at Augusta have thrived here. Both winners this century, Dustin Johnson and Angel Cabrera possess a Green Jacket while the names of Garcia, Lowry and Grace appearing in the top 5 in 2016 tell us all we need to know on the links front. Rahm with his Masters title and three top tens in his last four Open’s, as well as his success in the Irish Open certainly fits that bill.

Renowned for his tee to green prowess and the possessor of a great touch around the greens Rahm is the sort of all round player I am looking for this week and having racked up another top ten on the LIV Tour last week he looks primed to build on his effort at Quail Hollow and produce a big week here.

SHANE LOWRY – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I can’t ignore the obvious credentials of Shane Lowry.

I actually backed Lowry here in 2016 at triple digit odds and it was a great ride through 54 holes before his painful demise on Sunday.

Returning here this year then Lowry should have positive vibes from Oakmont and while of course we wont be getting anything like the odds of nine years ago he returns a Major Champion and a far superior player to the one he was back then.

Looking at Shane’s credentials for Oakmont and it is easy to see from his profile and stats why this layout should suit him. Firstly of course we have the obvious links pedigree while if we look at his numbers for this season we see that he sits second from tee to green, second in approach play and 24^th around the green.

The weakness with the Irishman of course as we know is on the greens and this has been the area that has cost him time and again over the recent years. The hope this week though is with the scoring and the greens being tough for everyone that this wont harm him as much as it would in a birdie fest.

With regards to Shane’s winless run and we have to go back to Wentworth in 2022 for his last victory while his last solo PGA Tour triumph came in 2019 at the Open. As we know though while Shane doesn’t win often, when he does he wins big, not too dissimilar in fact profile wise to the 2007 champion here Cabrera.

Lowry arrives here after another solid performance in Canada where after threatening to get in the mix on Sunday he ultimately finished 13^th, still though that was his eighth top 20 of the year in what has been another hugely consistent season to date.

I’ll take Lowry this week then to once more step up at Oakmont and make a bold challenge to finally return to the winners enclosure.

JORDAN SPIETH –  55/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Moving on and I will take a chance that Oakmont brings out the creativity in Jordan Spieth.

I mentioned earlier that the most two recent editions of the US Open at Oakmont have been kind to both players with a strong links pedigree and players with a strong Augusta record. If we are looking then for a player who fits that bill then Jordan Spieth is pretty much at the top of the list.

An Open Championship winner in 2017 and runner up in 2021, Spieth of course also has a superb record at Augusta boasting one Green Jacket and numerous further top ten finishes to his name. Clearly then if we are to take that hint from past leaderboards here he has the perfect correlating profile.

On the flip side of the coin of course Jordan is winless since the 2022 RBC Heritage while his last Major triumph came at Birkdale in 2017, so its been a long time between drinks for him.

There is no denying though that following his wrist surgery at the back end of last year Spieth has been slowly but surely making really positive strides in the right direction, with 2025 having seen him notch four top tens including one in his most recent start at the Memorial.

Looking at that week at Muirfield Village and while Spieth was still throwing in the sort of errors we have got used to seeing from him over the more recent years, there was an awful lot to like about his game with his stats for the week positive in all key areas. Eleventh around the green and 23^rd in putting show that his short game was in great shape while he ranked 13^th off the tee and 27^th in Driving Accuracy. Meanwhile a look at Spieth’s stats for 2025 as a whole to date show positive numbers in all departments at 25^th from tee to green and 32^nd around the green.

Spieth teed it up here back in 2016 finishing 37^th so he does have some experience here. whether he is the player now that he was back then of course is very debatable but that is obviously reflected in his odds these days and with his trajectory to me very much on the up I am willing to take a chance on him.

RUSSELL HENLEY –  50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next cab off the rank for me this week is Russell Henley.

I have always thought of Henley as a player who could bag a Major one day and there is no doubt that over the past couple of years his game has gone up to the level where this is a realistic possibility.

2024 saw Russell post back to back top tens in Majors, firstly when seventh at the US Open and then fifth when we were onboard at The Open, a finish, which along with his form over the years at PGA National, gives us the links pedigree we are looking for.

This year Russell it must be said has disappointed at the Majors missing the cut in both to date, however aside from that he has continued to play to an excellent standard notching a win at Bay Hill and five other top tens including most recently when fifth at the Memorial.

From a stats point of view Henley is one of the most reliable on tour these days from tee to green, ranking 18^th in that department while he is 12^th in good old fashioned driving accuracy and seventh in GIR, so he should be able to stay out of trouble as much as anyone this week.

Meanwhile around the greens he sits an eye catching 11^th, while his putter his weak link over the more recent years has been solid this year, currently ranking 51^st.

All in all then the Georgia Bulldog has the perfect profile to ‘hang around’ this week and potentially be the last man standing and I am keen to have him onside.

MARC LEISHMAN – 1pt E/W – 175/1 – 1/5 odds 1^st 10.

I shall finish this week with a roll of the dice on a couple of big each way plays starting with Marc Leishman.

Go back ten years or so and Leishman was a regular near the top of Major Championship leaderboards and his CV boasts a runner up and two further top ten finishes at the Open and three top tens at Augusta including a best of fourth.

Of late though having chosen to ply his trade on the LIV circuit Marc has been absent from the Majors and this week will actually be the first time he has tee’d it up in one since the 2022 Open.

This year on the LIV circuit though Leishman has had something of a renaissance bagging the trophy in Miami on a tough layout at Doral, where only six players finished under par while he bagged another top ten last week. He was also in good form back in Australia over the Christmas period notching back to back third place finishes. Having come through final qualifying for this week then Leishman should be relishing the tough challenge ahead.

The Aussie wasn’t having the best of years back in 2016 however he played nicely here to finish 18^th posting two under par rounds along the way and again as a great exponent of links golf and with his strong Augusta record he certainly fits the profile of someone who should go well here.

No doubt at 41 Leishman’s best days on the course are most likely behind him but I’ll take him to dig in this week and roll back the years and produce a big performance.

MATT McCARTY – 1pt E/W – 200/1 – 1/5 odds 1^st 12

Finally I shall wrap things up with Matt McCarty.

McCarty has been a revelation on the PGA Tour since earning a three win promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour last year.

Firstly he bagged a win in the Fall in Utah when we were onboard before after he initially started 2025 slowly, posting five top 20 finishes in his last nine starts including an excellent fourth in Canada last week.

One of his stand out performances came at Augusta when Matt finished in 14^th place, the highlight of, which came on Friday when he posted an excellent 68.

I was actually on Matt that week for a top 40 finish as I had a hunch he would take to Augusta and with Augusta having been a nice pointer to here then that brings him on our radar for this week.

A player with plenty of flare if we look at the lefty’s stats and there is much to like in relation to the skill sets we are looking out for this week. He sits 22^nd in driving accuracy, 21^st in putting and is solid around the greens, while his lack of distance off the tee shouldn’t penalise him too much here.

Buoyed then by his fourth place in Canada, a finish, which earned him a spot in next month’s Open, I’ll take Matt to thrive again under Major conditions this week and improve on his 14^th at Augusta and sneak in to the frame.