Open Championship

The Open Championship

It was a ‘nearly but not quite’ week for us at the Genesis Scottish Open and a frustrating one for us at the ISCO Championship for us.

At the Scottish Open Matt Fitzpatrick vaulted himself in to contention for us on Friday after an excellent 63. He then hung around in the hunt for the whole weekend but unfortunately was unable to quite find the extra spurt that was needed down the home stretch on Sunday to bag the trophy, still though it was a nice full place return.

Over at the Isco three of our four picks made the cut and were in decent shape heading in to the weekend. Unfortunately though all three Will Gordon, Rico, Hoey and Michael Thorbjornsen threw in too many big mistakes over the closing thirty six holes on a course that most found a tough nut to crack. In the end when a birdie on the 72^nd hole would have bagged Will Gordon a place he closed with a bogey and our week was over.

The events were won in the end by Chris Gotterup and William Mouw respectively. Gotterup produced a superb display in Scotland to out dual Rory McIlroy over the weekend and deliver on the promise that many thought he had while Mouw came from nowhere on Sunday in the Isco to close with 61 and post a total that nobody could match.

So onwards we go and we come to what in many people’s eyes is the biggest week of the year with the playing of the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

Situated in Co Antrim, Northern Ireland, Royal Portrush had to wait 68yrs to host the Open Championship again from 1951 to 2019 when the event finally returned to the home of Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell amongst others.

Now after the huge success of the 2019 edition we return here once more after just a six year break.  

As with any Major Championship there are plenty of fascinating storylines coming in, will Rory McIlroy get fully back on track following his post Masters slump and lay the ghost to rest of his 2019 missed cut in front of his home fans, will Scottie Scheffler master links golf, will Fleetwood or Hatton bag a Major breakthrough on home soil , can Lowry defend from 2019?

Needless to say the field is a stellar one with all of the games biggest names in attention.

The market is headed up by Scottie Scheffler with the Texan then followed by Rory McIlroy who looks to land his home Open and cement an unforgettable career year. This duo are then followed by Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Bryson Dechambeau.

COURSE

Royal Portrush is a par 71 measuring to around 7380yds. This represents an increase of approximately 40yds since the 2019 edition here.

The course is situated on the North Antrim Causeway Coast. The course occupies a triangle of giant sandhills with views of the hills of Inishowen in County Donegal in the West, the Isle of Islay and Southern Hebrides in the north, with the Giants Causeway and Skerries in the east.

The course was originally designed by Old Tom Morris and opened in 1888. It was then fully redesigned by Harry Colt in the 1930s with a new routing created.

Finally in preparation for the Open golf course architect Martin Ebert added two new holes, the 6^th and 7^th to replace the old 17^th and 18^th, by taking land from the neighbouring Valley Course.

Other than those changes the remaining 16 holes are basically the same as they were when the Open last visited here in 1951.

Englishman Colt has been responsible for many designs and redesigns in the UK including the East & West courses at Wentworth. He also designed Hamilton G&CC, which recently held the RBC Canadian Open won by Rory McIlroy. Furthermore he was also responsible for a major redesign at Open rota course Muirfield in 1925.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the winners going back to 2011.

2024 Xander Schauffele

2023 Brian Harman

2022 Cameron Smith.

2021 Collin Morikawa

2019 Shane Lowry

2018 Francesco Molinari

2017 Jordan Spieth

2016 Henrik Stenson

2015 Zach Johnson

2014 Rory McIlroy

2013 Phil Mickelson

2012 Ernie Els

2011 Darren Clarke

So what does this tell us? Well go back ten years plus and the Open had a reputation for giving us shock winners every now and then with the obvious ones springing to mind being Todd Hamilton in 04 here, Ben Curtis in 03 and Paul Lawrie in 1999.

This was put down to the various vagaries that come with the Open Championship such as the draw bias with the weather and the lucky bounces here and there.

In essence you could be forgiven for thinking that finding the winner of the Open had basically become a bit of a lottery.

In more recent years though this has not been the case and since Hamilton’s win in 2004 there have only been four winners who had not already been a member of a Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup team, Louis Oosthuizen and then more recently Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and the 2023 winner Brian Harman. In Morikawa though of course we had a winner who made his Ryder Cup debut several months later and whose ability to win at this level had already been well and truly shown with his PGA triumph.

So if we believe that there is not going to be a huge draw bias this week [30mph winds on Thurs AM & Fri PM etc], it would seem that for the winner we should be focusing on elite players.

The next thing to consider is the recent form coming in to the event of the winners since 2011. Here are the previous three starts of the past 10 winners with the most recent shown first.

I have also noted how many wins, if any, the player had in that calendar year prior to their Open victory.

2024 X Schauffele       15 13 7             1 win in the year

2023 B Harman           12 9 2              0 wins in the year

2022 C Smith              10 MC 48         2 wins in the year

2021  C Morikawa        71 4 2              1 win in the year

2019  S Lowry              34 28 2            1 win in the year

2018 F Molinari            2 1 25                2 wins in the year

2017 J Spieth               1 35 10             2 wins in the year

2016 H Stenson          13 1 WD          1 win in the year

2015 Z Johnson           3  6  72            0 wins in the year

2014 R McIlroy           14 76 23            1 win in the year

2013 P Mickelson       1 MC 2             2 wins in the year

2012 E Els                    52 9 58            0 wins in the year

2011 D Clarke             66 MC 46         1 win in the year

So as we can see from this ten of the past 13 winners had already won an event in the same calendar year. Eleven of them had notched a top 10 in their previous three starts, while seven of the last nine had posted a top three in their previous three starts. Furthermore none had missed the cut in their previous start and only three had missed a cut in any of their previous three starts.

In addition something we have seen a real pattern in of late is that Major winners tend to have produced a big finish in their previous Major start.

To expand further and Matt Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the PGA Championship while Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler both finished eighth in their Major start prior to their wins last year. If we then go back to 2021 and Morikawa was fourth in the US Open before winning at Royal St George’s, Jon Rahm was eighth in the PGA before his US Open triumph, Hideki Matsuyama was 13^th in the November Masters before triumphing at Augusta in May while Bryson Dechambeau was fourth in the first post Covid Major, the PGA at Harding Park before winning the US Open shortly after.

In 2023 it is fair to say this trend was bucked slightly as Wyndham Clark missed the cut at the PGA before his superb triumph in LA, Jon Rahm had been a lowly 34^th at the Open the previous year before his win at Augusta and Harman had only finished 43^rd at the US Open. Brooks Koepka though undoubtedly telegraphed his PGA victory with his big performance at Augusta the previous month.

In 2024 Scottie Scheffler triumphed at Augusta after finishing 23^rd at Hoylake the previous year. Following this Xander Schauffele bagged the PGA after an eighth at Augusta, Bryson Dechambeau triumphed at Pinehurst after finishing runner up in the PGA before Schauffele bagged his second Major of the year after a seventh at Pinehurst.

Finally to bring us up to date McIlroy bagged his Grand Slam after missing the cut in the 2024 Open before Scheffler triumphed at Quail Hollow after a fourth at Augusta. Meanwhile even shock US Open winner JJ Spaun had played very nicely in the PGA particularly over the first two days before fading slightly over the weekend to finish 37^th.

All in all then a strong Major performance in your previous Major start looks to be a big pointer to bagging one of the games biggest trophies.

From a correlating course point of view as well as looking at the obvious other Open venues and links events played on the DP World Tour such as the Dunhill Links lets not forget the Honda Classic played on the PGA Tour, an event, which has been won by several past Open Champions including Tod Hamilton no less who triumphed here in 2004! In addition let’s not forget that 2019 winner here Shane Lowry had performed strongly at the Harry Colt designed Hamilton G&CC, which had hosted the Canadian Open just a few weeks prior while he has also won at the Colt designed Wentworth.

Next I want to take a look at how many of these Open winners had tee’d it up the week before at the Scottish Open or indeed anywhere.

The answer to this is nine, Schauffele, Harman, Smith, Morikawa, Stenson, McIlroy, Mickelson, Els and Clarke had all played in the Scottish the week before whilst Zach Johnson and Molinari had hopped straight of the plane from a 3^rd and second respectively at the John Deere.

This leaves Spieth in 2017 who was making his first start since winning the Travelers and Lowry as the only two not to have played the week directly before their triumph.

All in all though the evidence seems to point towards the fact that a competitive run out the week before on the Scottish Links is of benefit and it should be noted that the last three Open winners had finished 15, 12 & 10 respectively in the Scottish Open..

Finally whilst Major Championship golf in general tends to be a young man’s game these days this is not so much the case with The Open with five of the last twelve winners being in their 40s while 2023 winner Harman was 36 at the time of his win.

So in summary it would seem that we should be looking for one of the game’s elite with Ryder or Presidents Cup experience who has posted a win this season, played nicely in Scotland last week and performed strongly at Oakmont!

WEATHER FORECAST

With dry conditions of late and an initially dry forecast as a whole coming in I had been siding on firm fast conditions for the week ahead.

While I still think the conditions will lean in this direction the forecast has changed slightly through today to show a greater chance of rain over the weekend. As a whole as I write there are no major deluges predicted with lighter rain or showers more the order of the day.

Temperatures look set to sit around the high 60s/70 mark.

Wind, which of course is the major defence of any links course looks set to keep the players honest around the 15mph mark but as I write there is no major heavy winds [or rain] forecast.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

VIKTOR HOVLAND – 25/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

While I can see a bold showing from McIlroy and of course you can’t discount Scheffler the player who appeals to me most from the top end of the betting is Viktor Hovland.

With three top 13 finishes in four Open appearances including a best of fourth at St Andrews Hovland has certainly shown us that he has what it takes to land a Claret Jug. Add that to three top three finishes in Majors since the start of 2023 and there is no doubt that Viktor has served his apprenticeship in the biggest of events and he is now very much due to deliver.

A winner in 2025 at the Valspar Championship Hovland has the victory to his name this year, which so many Open champions tend to have while he was also right in the mix at the most recent Major finishing third at Oakmont, which again fits the profile well. In addition with Oakmont certainly having the feel of a links style test that big performance bodes well for this week.

The Norwegian tuned up nicely at the Scottish Open last week finishing 11^th, again fitting the profile of the last three Open winners who have all performed strongly at the Renaissance Club. Furthermore a look at his approach play numbers for last week show that his iron play was firing strongly as he ranked fourth in that department. This reflects his season long ranking of second in this department.

The one area of Viktor’s game that let him down in Scotland was his play around the greens, which as we know can be his weak link, however with his iron play so strong and with the putter rather than chipping likely to be the ‘go to’ around a lot of the greens here I am happy to chance that this will not stop him seriously contending, just as it hasn’t over recent Majors and previous Opens.

All in all then Hovland looks the pick to me at the odds of the marquee names and I am keen to have him onside at the odds here.

SEPP STRAKA – 50/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up while I admit that the odds are a bit tighter than I had hoped for I can’t get away from  Sepp Straka.

A two time winner on the PGA Tour this year including most recently in the Truist Signature Event Straka has truly cemented himself amongst the top echelons of the game and is now very much a lock for the Ryder Cup.

Following that win at the Truist Sepp went on to finish third at the Memorial before adding a seventh place at the weekend in Scotland so he continues to perform really strongly.

The elephant in the room however is that despite his great play through the season as a whole Sepp has actually missed the cut in all three Majors to date this year and this is of course a concern, that said we know he can perform on the Major stage and in the Open as he finished second behind Brian Harman at Hoylake in 2023, while he was also seventh in the PGA that year.

Furthemore as a former winner of the Cognizant Classic we have another very nice link to this week as we know that is a tournament that has always linked well with the Open.

The key to the Austrian’s success this year has been his stellar tee to green game, he ranks seventh in this department and fourth in approach play, however it was actually his short game that did the work in Scotland last week as he ranked third around the green and third in putting while only 49^th in approach play.

Having been off for three weeks though since the Travelers the hope is that Sepp dusted off the long game cobwebs last week and will improve significantly on that front this week. If he can then align that to a comparable short game to last week he will undoubtedly be a serious contender here and one I can’t ignore.

RUSSELL HENLEY – 66/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I shall stick with a player I have sided with a couple of times in Majors over the past year, Russell Henley.

One of those occasions was in the Open last year where I stated that I had long thought Russell had the game to win an Open. At that time I also got the elephant in the room out of the way early, he had a woeful record in the event heading in to Troon with a best of 20^th in the previous ten years with five missed cuts in his previous nine starts.

Still we stuck with the courage of our convictions and Henley rewarded us with a fifth place finish and a full each way place at juice triple digit odds.

Roll on 12 months and we will not be getting such fancy prices about Henley as he arrives here having bagged the trophy at Bay Hill earlier this year and with three top 10 finishes on the bounce including a tenth place at the US Open giving us that eye catching recent strong Major finish.

A past winner at PGA National in the Honda Classic in 2014, an event which has been a huge pointer to the Open over the years, Russell has continued to play well there over time. Then for what its worth two of his other four wins on the PGA Tour have come by the coast in Hawaii at the Sony and in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship.

We know then that Russell has the game to perform strongly in the wind however in addition he has now turned himself to one of the most solid tee to green performers on the PGA tour, ranking 18^th in Driving Accuracy and 12^th in approach play this season. With the anticipated firm fast conditions then my thinking then likely to reward precision rather than power Henley looks to have the perfect tools to go well here. Furthermore the area that had caused him problems over recent years, the putter, has picked up considerably this year as he ranks 29^th with the flat stick.

At 36yrs old and with plenty of Open Championship experience now in the bank the Georgia Bulldog really does tick all the boxes for us this week and I expect another really big Major showing from him that could well lead to his Major breakthrough.

HARRIS ENGLISH – 100/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up for me this week is Harris English.

English has quietly turned in to one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour and it has been more of the same this year with one win, a runner up finish, two further top tens and just two missed cuts to his name.

One of those runner up finishes came at Quail Hollow earlier this year at the PGA when we were on board and If we then look at Harris’ Major record in general over the recent years he has been excellent notching three top tens at the US Open since 2020 and a 12^th at the Masters earlier this year.

It should be said Harris’ Open record isn’t great with a best finish of 15^th back in 2013, however this came on the Harry Colt redesigned Muirfield so he can handle tough links conditions. In addition with his win this year coming at Torrey Pines and two of his previous victories coming at the Sentry and Mayakoba we know he is comfortable by the coast.

With weather conditions expected to be reasonably friendly this week but with the course playing firm I expect there to be a premium on a steady tee to green performance aligned with a strong putting touch and this certainly fits with what we have seen from English of late.

I’ll take him then to potentially be the next in line of the many slightly under the radar Americans who have returned home with the Claret Jug over the years.

CAMERON SMITH – 90/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

While the lack of a links warm up is enough to put me off most of the LIV players this week who arrive straight from Valderrama I feel compelled to risk Cam Smith at the odds.

As those who follow me know I have not been afraid to pass judgement on Smith’s decision to join LIV and his subsequent relative lack of competitive edge in the biggest of events however I have to think that if he is going to get his game back to where it was he will either show this at Augusta or in an Open Championship.

The winner of the Open in 2022 at St Andrews when we were onboard the Aussie really is a natural for this weeks test and he has talked about how his performance here in 2019 where he finished 20^th when in no great form coming in opened his eyes to what is required to perform strongly in this event.

2025 has undoubtedly been a poor year for Cam however to be fair to him he had the distraction of the birth of a child in the early part of the year. Of late though things have picked up a bit and he produced a solid week in Spain to finish seventh.

Smith finished sixth at Augusta just last year so he does have some relatively recent strong Major form since joining LIV and he could just get in the hunt this week and in doing so make his odds look very silly.

CHRIS KIRK –  200/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10

For my final pick in this week I am going to roll the dice on Chris Kirk at big odds.

Chris has struggled by and large in 2025 however he bounced back to form at the US Open at Oakmont with an excellent performance to finish 12^th. He then followed that up with a second place finish at the Rocket Classic where he lost out in a play off, before finishing down the field at the John Deere.

A former winner of the Cognizant Classic, which we know links really well to the Open, despite his poor Open record as a whole, Kirk has long since struck me as player who could thrive in the Open.

Now 40yrs old Chris is a six time Tour winner with his most recent trophy also coming by the coast when he blitzed a high quality field in a Signature event in last years Sentry. Add that to the fact that another of his wins came in a Fedex Cup Play off event and that he has represented the US in the Presidents Cup and we know that he can very much mix it in the big league.

Always known as a really strong putter Kirk has really struggled on the greens this year, which ties in with his poor year as a whole. At the US Open though Chris found his putting touch again ranking sixth on the greens, while he was also strong on the dance floor in Detroit. Add that to his strong all round tee to green stats over the more recent weeks and Kirk has clearly found a spark of late.

I’m happy to chance him this week then to follow up his great week in Oakmont with another big Major performance.