The Tour Championship

The Tour Championship

It was a frustrating end to the week for us at the BMW Championship as Ludvig Aberg who had sat in third place heading in to Sunday struggled throughout the final day before rounding off with a bogey, double bogey finish…to end up one shot out of the places.

The event itself was won by Scottie Scheffler who ground down Robert MacIntyre on the final day after the Scot had started Sunday with a four shot lead.

MacIntyre had played superbly over the first three days and having matched Scheffler on Saturday it was surprising to see him capitulate on Sunday. While Scheffler was his normal solid self this is no doubt one that MacIntyre gave away and you could tell from his post round frustration that he knew this.

So onwards we go to the last week of the PGA Season at the Tour Championship.

The Tour Championship first debuted on the PGA Tour in 1987 before becoming the finale to the Fedex Cup Play Offs in 2007.

In its early years the event rotated through several different courses, however since 2004 it has been played continuously at East Lake GC in Atlanta, Georgia.

The event is contested by the Top 30 players in the Fedex Cup rankings after the completion of the second play-off event, The BMW Championship.

So, where to begin with this year’s Tour Championship? Well, as we know since 2019 when the PGA Tour in their wisdom decided that the old format of two tournaments in once, which had given us some gripping finale’s to both the Fedex Cup and the Tour Championship itself was ‘too confusing’ for viewers, we have had to suffer the nonsense that was a starting strokes handicap system whereby the leader of the Fedex Cup came in to the week starting on -10.

Eventually and not a moment too soon, the Tour have remarkably worked out this does not make for good viewing either as the best player gets a lead on the field and potentially gallops in to the sunset.

So after a ‘root & branch’ review, what have we got...well for this year at least basically we just have a golf tournament, which someone will win and walk away with the title of Fedex Cup Champion and the big cash bonus.

Obviously this is ridiculously unfair on Scheffler, McIlroy etc that there seasons count for nothing this week as, as long as you are in the top 30 you start on a level playing field.

That said these guys have been hugely rewarded financially for their Fedex finishing positions on the regular season and I much prefer this system to the starting strokes, indeed I will admit I am even warming to the idea as the week approaches.

The word on the street is that this is just an interim format and that next year we may get match play or something else completely different, but in the meantime this is what we have and it is certainly way better than what we have had to suffer since 2019.

At the time of writing all 30 of the players who have qualified are teeing it up with no withdrawals with Scottie Scheffler of course heading up the market from Rory McIlroy.

COURSE

East Lake is a par 70 measuring around 7400yds.

The greens are MiniVerde Bermuda.

The course was originally opened in 1907 however it was then completely redesigned by Donald Ross in 1913.

Other Donald Ross designs used on tour include Sedgefield Country Club, the annual home of the Wyndham Championship, Detroit GC the host of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Aronimink, which hosted the 2018 BMW Championship and the 2010 & 2011 AT&T Nationals.

East Lake is a tough test with finding fairways and even more so the right areas on the greens being the key to success here.

The main reasons for this is that it is important to leave yourself with the right uphill putts on the fast running surfaces to be able to be aggressive when putting.

If you do miss the greens here you find yourself in the tightly mown, run off areas and struggling to make par.

HISTORY

Historically of course the most important thing to address this week was how the event ties in with the conclusion of the Fedex Cup as in essence we had two tournaments going on at once, The Tour Championship and The Fedex Cup Race. Then, since 2019 it has been a case of trying to navigate the mindset of the psychological effect of when looking at the ‘real 72 hole low score market’, of the starting strokes handicap versus those who have been off the pace and able to free wheel it.

This year though, none of the above is relevant at all and we simply need to look at the regular course form, current form, correlating form etc that we would look at in any given week.

From the latter point of view we need to look at the other Donald Ross layouts on tour, Detroit GC the home of the Rocket Classic and Sedgefield CC home of the Wyndham.

The other unknown heading in to the week and factor to perhaps consider is the reverse psychology to that we are normally considering in the playoffs re momentum.

To explain more and over recent years we have seen the likes of Hovland and of course Scheffler last year carry the momentum of big previous finishes in the Play Off’s, and an advantage of the starting strokes to land the Tour Championship and with it the Fedex Cup.

This year however I do wonder if a player who enters having performed strongly over the previous two weeks may almost feel hard done by and will struggle to keep their form going, whereas someone who has had a poorer year by their expectations may just feel they have nothing to lose as they look to salvage their year.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for another week of warm temperatures sitting around the 90 degree mark and the chance of storms can’t be ruled out on any day.

Wind does not look to be an issue across the week as a whole with nothing much more than 10mph in the forecast.

As I always say though…this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with two players this week as per below.

VIKTOR HOVLAND – 2.5pts E/W 20/1– 1/5 odds 1^st 6. - FINISHED 12th

To be honest this is really a week where you could roll the dice on any of the top named players and it goers without saying that the man they all have to beat is Scottie Scheffler.

As I mentioned earlier though I do wonder if there maybe some reverse psychology in play this week as Scheffler must have some frustration that his superb play over the season counts for nothing this week.

Instead then I will take my chances firstly with the player who I feel offers the best value at the top of the board, Viktor Hovland.

The Norwegian bagged the Fedex Cup here two years ago and it should be noted that on that occasion he also topped the ‘real 72 hole scoring’ so we know he is more than comfortable on the East Lake layout. He also then has a fourth and eighth place in the real scoring in his four other previous visits here.

The Norwegians Iron play appears to be back to its best and he ranked seventh in approach play on his way to an eye catching seventh at Caves Valley last week.

There is no doubt that the thought of bagging $10 Million could create pressure for some this week however Viktor strikes me as not someone who will get overly pressured by this and he looks the value at the each way odds to me.

SAM BURNS – 22/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 6. - FINISHED 7th

For my second selection this week I will take Sam Burns.

Burns has done everything this season but win, having lost out in a play off in Canada before coming close in the US Open.

Having cooled off slightly in Europe through July Sam appears to have picked up momentum again producing an excellent fourth place finish in the BMW.

A look at his numbers for the week show he was second on the greens, ninth off the tee and 14^th in approach play so some good solid stuff.

Looking at Sam’s record at East Lake he has a best off fourth two years ago in real scoring in four appearances and played solidly again when 13^th on that front last year.

A Florida native Sam is most at home on the East Coast. Keen to impress captain Bradley one final time before he announces his wild card picks and I can see Sam producing another big week here.