Farmers Insurance Open

Farmers Insurance Open

It was a good week for us at the American Express as our 225/1 pick Tom Hoge grabbed a good chunk of the place money, while we also bagged full place returns with Ryan Gerard and Si Woo Kim.

Heading in to Sunday Si Woo held a one shot lead over a certain Scottie Scheffler. With Si Woo’s pedigree in this event though and on Pete Dye layouts in general we weren’t without hope going in to the final day. After Si Woo briefly held a two shot lead through two holes though Scheffler reeled him in by the fifth and after Si Woo made a complete mess of the par 5 eighth the result was never in doubt.

It was then left to Hoge to carry our hopes of a decent return and having made us sweat through a rollercoaster back nine a bogey on 18 finally secured a tie for eighth place.

With Gerard charging through the field though for his third consecutive second place finish across all tours and Si Woo rallying for a place we can have no complaints.

As for Scheffler we look set for another year of watching him dominate and you can only have huge admiration for what we are witnessing. As this result for us proves though it is still possible to make a decent profit even when he runs away with things!

So, with the American Express behind us for another year we move on in good spirits, and for its second week of the West Coast swing the PGA Tour heads about 80 miles South West in California from La Quinta to La Jolla, San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open.

The Farmers Insurance Open originally graced the PGA Tour as the San Diego Open way back in 1952.

In 1981 title sponsors were added to the tournament and after a succession of different sponsors Buick took over as lead sponsor in 1992. They then continued in this role until 2010 at which point Farmers took over.

After being held at a few different courses over the early years the event landed at Torrey Pines in 1968 and there it has remained to the present day.

In addition of course Torrey Pines also features on the US Open rota and the years second Major visited La Jolla last June.

The market is headed up by San Diego native Xander Schauffele who makes his seasonal debut. Xander is then followed by Ludvig Aberg who won the Genesis event here last year. This pair are then followed by Cameron Young, Jason Day and Si Woo Kim.

COURSES

For the second week running we have a tournament which uses multiple courses with all players playing one round on the host course, the South Course, over the first two days, along with one round on the North Course.

Those making the cut then play their final two rounds on the South Course.

The North Course is a par 72 coming in at 7258 yds. Whilst the North Course had a redesign from Tom Weiskopf in 2016, which toughened it up slightly, it’s still by far the easier course of the two and the one to take advantage of over the first two days. The greens are bentgrass.

The South Course is pretty much the longest Par 72 course on tour stretching to over 7700 yds.

The greens are Poa Annua.

Whilst it’s not impossible for shorter hitters to compete here big hitters do have an advantage on the South Course.

HISTORY

Let’s start by taking a look at the winners going back to 2015;

2025 H English

2024 M Pavon

2023 M Homa

2022 L List

2021 P Reed

2020    M Leishman

2019    J Rose

2018    J Day

2017    J Rahm

2016    B Snedeker

2015    J Day

The event was dominated by Tiger Woods through the early part of the 2000s with four consecutive wins coming from him from 2005 – 2008. The most recent of his 7 wins at the event came in 2013.

As we can see from the above list over the years this has been an event on the whole for the big names however over the past four years we have had two shock winners in Luke List firstly in 2022 and then Matthieu Pavon in 2023. The Frenchman’s victory was probably as huge surprise as we had on the PGA Tour that year having just started life on the PGA Tour after gaining his card via the DP Worl Tour.

In addition to Tiger the other course specialists over recent years have been Brandt Snedeker who as well as having 2 wins to his name has 7 other top 10s in the last 15 editions and Jason Day who has two wins and three further top five’s since 2015.

Looking at the winners over that time form in previous events in the calendar year coming in does not seem to be particularly significant.

This can be seen by the fact that only five of the winners since the turn of the decade had a top 10 finish to their name in the calendar year already.

These were Brandt Snedeker [twice], Day in 2015, Max Homa in 2023 who had finished third at the Sentry in his previous calendar year start and Pavon, who despite being an unheralded champion had given a hint of what was to come when finishing seventh at the Sony.

Up until 2018 though at least one previous start in the year to shake the rust of did seem to be important however that year Day won here on his first start of the year and Justin Rose managed a similar feat in 2019. Normal service has resumed on this front though over the past five years with Pavon, Homa, List, Leishman and Reed.

Multiple winners are also common place in this event as following on from Tiger’s domination we have seen both Snedeker and Day win twice.

The most striking point to note though is that previous course form does appear to play a significant part here with only two of the past 11 winners Pavon and Jon Rahm, not having at least one previous top ten finish here, while two of those winners, Snedeker and Day had actually triumphed here before.

This trend was rubber stamped once more over the past six years with Leishman who triumphed here in 2020 having previously notched four top tens including two runner up finishes,  Reed again fitting the bill perfectly having finished sixth here the year before, List triumphing on the back of 10^th here the year before and 12^th in 2018 and California specialist Homa bagged the trophy after a previous ninth place finish. Finally last years winner English again fitted the profile perfectly with a runner up finish here to his name previously.

Allowing for List in 2021 then, Reeds sixth place in 2020, Snedeker [in 2012] and Day when they gained there first wins here, and Rose when he was victorious here, five of the last 14 champions here finished in the top ten the year before.

It should also be noted that not only does previous course form appear to be important but overall experience on the course certainly seems to hold value.

Reed triumphed here on his sixth visit, Leishman bagged the title on his twelfth visit here while Justin Rose, the 2019 Champion, bagged the trophy on his eighth start of the decade after finally cracking the top 10 in start number six. List again fitted the profile perfectly as he triumphed on his eighth start here, while Homa was victorious on his seventh visit. Meanwhile English was victorious on his whopping 11^th start here!

Pavon obviously blew this stat out of the water while Rahm was the first, first time PGA Tour winner in the event this century, obviously though he was no ordinary ‘maiden’.

One other trend that had clearly developed over recent years was the habit of the winner playing the South Course on Thursday and the North Course on Friday and this had been the case every year from 2011 to 2018.

Invariably what we had seen over this period is the eventual winner shoot somewhere around level par or even over par on day one leaving them way down the field before storming through in to contention with a strong round on the Friday.

However this trend was bucked from 2019 through 2021 as Reed opened with a 64 on the North Course in 2021 before posting 72 at the South on Friday, Leishman with a 68 on the North Course in 2020 before posting again 72 on the South the next day, while in 2019 Justin Rose stormed out of the gates with a 63 at the North Course before adding an impressive 66 at the South on Friday.

In 2022 it was a return to the norm with List as he opened with a strong 67 on the South on Thursday before posting 68 at the North on Friday, however in 2023 Homa opened on the North with a 68 before working his way through the field on the South as the week progressed. Finally last year Pavon opened with a 69 on Friday on the North before storming in to contention with a round two 65 on the South. All in all then it would seem this there is no real clear relevance over the recent years as to, which course the eventual winner starts on.

Finally, being a coastal event the wind can have a big impact on the winning score and who can forget Snedeker’s ‘round of the year’ 69 in the gales [certainly not me as I was on him!] in 2016 to pinch the trophy from nowhere, with all around him struggling to break 76.

In general though it is not uncommon for the winning score to be single figures under par and this has been the case in 3 of the last 9yrs, however in 2020 Leishman triumphed with -15 and the previous year Justin Rose won with a score of -21!

In 2021 perhaps in the build up to the US Open played a bit tougher with only the winner Patrick Reed who landed a five shot victory, posting a double digits under par score at 14- under, while list year List and Will Zalatoris posted 15- under before List edged the playoff. In 2023 Homa triumphed with a 13- under total and Pavon notched the same score in 2023. Last year though with tougher conditions in play the winning number for English was 8- under.

WEATHER FORECAST.

We look set for a bright sunny week with temperatures sitting around the low 70s

The wind, which can often be an issue here doesn’t look set to be too much of a factor this week with nothing much above 10mp in the forecast.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

MAX HOMA – 50/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

We shall start this week with the fairly obvious ‘go to’ in California of Max Homa.

Turn the clock back a couple of years and if a carrot was dangled on Max in his home state of anything around 25/1 or bigger then the Californian would be an auto bet.

Over the past 18 months or so though things have not gone to plan for Homa and 2025 saw him lose his way with no top tens until July.

After notching a fifth place at the John Deere though things started to pick up for Max and the back end of the year saw him post three top 20s in his final four starts including a ninth place to finish off the year in Utah.

On to 2026 then and Homa made his seasonal debut at the Amex and in arguably his least favourite event in his home state where he had never previously posted a top 20, so there was plenty of encouragement in his 27^th place finish where he ranked 21^st off the tee and 14^th both in approach play and putting for the measured rounds.

Granted we have not yet seen anything that can be classed as ‘peak Homa’ again yet but you have to think that he will have taken encouragement from how he finished off 2025 and will have been working hard over the break and will now be very much looking forward to the next few weeks.

Homing in then on his record in his home state and four of his six wins have come in California including here in 2023.

Whether Max is ready to win again I am not sure but if it is to happen you would think this next few weeks will give the best opportunity and I am keen to be on the right side of him as we head in to his most favoured run of events.

SAHITH THEEGALA –  75/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Another Californian whose fairly obvious credentials I can’t ignore this week are Sahith Theegala.

A native of Orange in California Sahith enjoyed his time in front of home fans at the Amex last week and there is reason to believe he cant continue to build on that momentum an hour down the road in San Diego.

Looking at Sahith’s performance at the Amex and after opening slowly with a 71 on the Stadium Course he made only two more bogeys all week, closing out with a 64 back on the Stadium on Sunday.

That closing round lead to a finish of eighth for Theegala, his first top ten on tour since 2024, after his 2025 season was blighted by injury and poor form, so you have to think that result will be a real shot in the arm for him.

We also shouldn’t ignore that after opening poorly at the Sony Theegala rallied really well to make the cut on his seasonal debut before playing solidly over the weekend.

This week will see Sahith make his fifth start in this event and having made the cut on all previous visits including a best of fourth it is clear that he enjoys the venue and playing in front of home fans.

In addition to rubber stamp his liking for Torrey Pines his 17^th here in the relocated Genesis last year was actually his best finish of the season. Finally while many years ago now Sahith actually won three World Junior Championships at Torrey and when returning as a pro he has often talked about his fondness for the venue.

The jury is still very much out as to whether Theegala is back to the player we saw in 2024 and before, however this is factored in to the odds and I am happy to roll the dice that he can build on last weeks fine effort.

PATRICK RODGERS –  50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10

Next up we are going back to the well with Patrick Rodgers.

Rodgers as we all know is still looking for that elusive maiden tour title and he was once again within shouting distance of this at the Sony Open recently before ultimately finishing third. To be fair to Patrick though other than a few putts not dropping that Sunday he did very little wrong that day as he closed out with a bogey free 65.

What has really caught the eye with Patrick so far this season though is that his approach play, long his weakness and an area he acknowledged at the back end of last year he needed to work on in the off season, has been really solid. Firstly in the Sony he ranked 21^st for the week in that department, while at the Amex he ranked eighth in the two measured rounds also ranking 1^st in GIR. The end result of this was that he produced by far his best ever finish at Waialae, a venue he has always struggled at, while in the Amex, another event, which has never suited him he produced a solid 44^th, his second best finish there ever.

On to this week then and we have a completely different story with regards to course suitability as Torrey Pines is somewhere Patrick has always really enjoyed, posting four top ten finishes there over the years including in third place in last years Genesis when it relocated there.

This gives us the historical course form so often requisite here while with double digit starts in the event we also have the course experience we are looking for.

There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick will get over the line eventually and once he does the floodgates could well open. With the really promising signs so far this year with his iron play then, this looks like a great opportunity for him to finally land his long overdue first PGA Tour trophy.

HAOTONG LI – 70/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Moving on and I will take a chance that Haotong Li could ‘do a Pavon’ and morph a strong start to life on the PGA Tour in to a maiden Stateside win at Torrey Pines.

A four time winner on the DP World Tour the Chinese star is undoubtedly at his best when the long game is paramount and that certainly is the case here.

Longer than average off the tee, a key ingredient to success here, while Haotong will be making his debut at Torrey Pines this week there is every reason to believe the layout will be right up his alley.

Li made a solid if unspectacular start to his PGA Tour career at the Sony finishing 55^th before stepping things up with an eighth place at the Amex last week where he ranked third off the tee and fifth in approach play for the measured rounds.

As well as notching four wins on the DP World Tour including one in the Dubai Desert Classic, Li boasts two top five Open finishes to his name, including last year at Portrush so clearly he is more than comfortable in big name company.

Very much a ‘streak player’ Haotong is a man to keep on side when he gets ‘hot’ and having finished off 2025 in strong fashion with an eighth in the DP World Tour Championship and a tenth at the Nedbank after dusting off the cobwebs at Waialae he appears to have picked up where he left off.

Currently ranked 69^th in the OWGR I do feel Li is overpriced in the market this week based on his pedigree, current form and course suitability, something which is no doubt down to his lack of course experience, which is obviously the downside. As we saw with Pavon though trends are there to be broken and I am happy to take my chances on Li this week.

ALDRICH POTGIETER – 150/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

Finally if we are looking for someone who hits it a country mile we need look no further than Aldrich Potgieter.

The young South African phenom is very much still a rough diamond from whom you never quite know what you will get, however clearly when the course suits him he is a serious threat to even the best.

Fifteenth on debut here last year, a finish which could have been much better but for struggling on Sunday to a closing 78, Aldrich went on to break several hearts including mine when narrowly beaten in a play off in Mexico on his next PGA Tour start. That finish showed us again though that he is very much suited to a long coastal layout and the correlation to here is very much rubber stamped by the likes of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Patrick Rodgers, who have all got strong records at both tracks.

Following that tough defeat in Mexico Potgieter lost his way for a few months however he sprung back to life with an out of the blue top 10 at Colonial before then winning on his next start at the Rocket Classic to deliver on his promise and bag his maiden tour title.

After going off the boil again on the PGA Tour after his win Aldrich finished off 2025 with a top ten back on home soil in the Alfred Dunhill.

On to this year and while he missed the cut at the Amex three eagles on the four par fives on Saturday at the Nicklaus Tournament course showed that his game isn’t too far away.

Arriving back here a PGA Tour winner and one would think an improved player to 12 months ago, there is every reason to think the 21yr old can build on last years promising debut here which saw him sit in third place through 54 holes.