The Cognizant Classic

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

It was another solid but unspectacular week for us at Riviera as our 18/1 selection Xander Schauffele who we were on to the tune of 2.5pts e/w bagged a good chunk of place money. The two time Major Champion had sat very handily at the halfway stage however he struggled, as many did to be fair, on the greens over the weekend and in the end I was grateful for the place return.

The one man who didn’t struggle on the greens was Jacob Bridgeman who lead the field a merry dance over the 72 holes before a slightly nervy finish.

The American entered Sunday with a six shot lead over Rory McIlroy and with the Northern Irishman struggling with a cold putter it was left to a charging Kurt Kitayama to put the pressure on. After a wobble down the stretch though which saw Bridgeman’s lead sink to one he ultimately made a clutch par on the final hole to close out his win.

Bridgeman has been going from strength to strength over the past couple of years and having performed really strongly at Pebble Beach last week he arrived in great form. As a tour maiden making his debut at Riviera his win busted all event trends though and I will happily admit he wasn’t remotely on my radar coming in to the week.

So with the West Coast swing in the books the tour now heads to the East Coast to start a four week run in Florida.

With the exception of 2021 when the schedule was re jigged the event formally known as the Honda Classic has traditionally heralded the beginning of the Florida Swing.

In 2022 though after Honda one of, if not the, longest serving sponsors on the PGA Tour chose to end its relationship with the event after 41yrs, the future of the tournament, which had become a victim of its spot in the schedule in the lead up to ‘designated events’ and The Players was at this point very much in doubt.

Fortunately though information technology company Cognizant have stepped forward with a long term deal to sponsor the event through to 2030 so the future of the tournament is secured.

The event was first played in 1972 and was hosted at several different locations until moving to Palm Beach Gardens in 2006.

After one year in 2006 at the Country Club at Mirasol it then moved to PGA National in 2007 and has remained there ever since.

In the same year the tournament's main beneficiary became the Nicklaus Children's Health Care Foundation, chaired by Barbara Nicklaus, wife of Jack Nicklaus, and this continues to be the case.

With most big names swerving the event the market is headed up by Shane Lowry. The Irishman is then followed by Ryan Gerard and Adam Scott.

COURSE

PGA National was originally a Tom & George Fazio design, which has subsequently undergone redesigns from Jack Nicklaus both in 1990 & 2013.

The other Nicklaus designs played regularly on tour are Muirfield village home of the Memorial and also last years ‘one off’ Workday event and the Nicklaus Tournament Course used as part of the course rotation for the Amex. In addition the Concession Club home of the 2021 WGC is a Nicklaus design.

The event has been played at PGA National since 2007.

The course, one of the tougher nuts to crack all year on the PGA Tour has played to a par 70 of just over 7100 yards. This year however the par four 10^th has been lengthened by 20 yards and will now play as a par 5, giving us a par 71 and potentially lower scoring.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

The ‘signature section’ of the course is The Bear Trap, which is holes 15-17. These holes combined create the toughest part of the course and indeed arguable the toughest 3 hole stretch on regular PGA Tour events year in year out.

These holes are made up of 2 par 3’s, the 15^th & 17^th and the par 4 16^th. If you can get through these three holes in level par you are certainly picking up shots on the field.

As noted earlier PGA National is a tough test with solid ball striking being the order of the day. In addition and without stating the obvious, keeping your ball out of the numerous water hazards which populate the course is a key ingredient to success here!

HISTORY

PGA National is undoubtedly as a rule a challenging test for the players. Only six times in the last ten years has the winning score been double digits under par. Firstly in 2017 when Rickie Fowler came home in -12 for a 4 shot victory, in 2021 when Matt Jones triumphed by five on a -12 total in 2022 when Sepp Straka edged out Shane Lowry with a 10- under total. Over the last three years though the test does seem to have got a bit easier, partly no doubt because the weather has cooperated. Firstly in 2023 Chris Kirk and Eric Cole both posted 14- under before Kirk triumphed in the play off and then in 2024 Austin Eckroat triumphed on 17- under. Finally last year Joe Highsmith landed a shock win on 19- under.

The other winning scores over this period have been -8, -9, -6, -8, -9 and -5 from Sungjae Im in 2020.

As I say just how difficult the course plays is dictated by how hard the wind blows and of course if the track has been ‘softened up’ by any rain.

So let’s take a look at those winners going back to 2014;

2025 Joe Highsmith

2024 Austin Eckroat

2023 Chris Kirk

2022 Sepp Straka

2021 Matt Jones

2020 Sungjae Im

2019 Keith Mitchell

2018  Justin Thomas

2017  Rickie Fowler

2016  Adam Scott

2015  Padraig Harrington

2014  Russell Henley

As we can see the role of honour has been a bit of a mixed bag. 2016 through to 2015 saw wins for three of the games big names in the shape Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott and there also a comeback win for Padraig Harrington. In addition just over ten years ago Rory McIlroy took home the trophy in 2012.

In amongst this though there were maiden PGA tour successes for Straka, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, Austin Eckroat and most recently Highsmith, alongside wins for Matt Jones & Russell Henley.

Henley, Straka and Im are now of course established as top performers in the game while Eckroat has added a second tour title to his cabinet and looks destined for the top echelons of the game, so of these winners you could only really class Jones and Mitchell as more leftfield.

When looking at the list of past winners and players who have performed well at this event there is an obvious cross reference to the British Open.

Rory and Harrington are past Open Champions as of course is Ernie Els who won here in 2008. Scott has come as close you can to winning the Open without doing so and Rickie has always been strong on links golf and still remains an Open Champion in waiting.

This reference also goes back beyond the event being played at PGA National with Todd Hamilton winning the Honda Classic before shocking the golfing world to lift the Claret Jug.

One other point of note on this roll of honour is that only seven of these dozen winners hailed from the US with plenty of internation players finding success here.

From the point of view of form coming in to the week and historical course form Thomas, Fowler and Scott were as telegraphed as a winner could be having finished top ten in their previous start and all having a previous top 12 finish in the event. Henley meanwhile had been in a poor run of form prior to his win here in 2014 having missed three of his five full field event cuts in the calendar year with nothing better than 51^st. He had though finished 13^th here the year before.

Straka had been on a solid run of form making all of his previous cuts in 2022 and posting two top 16 finishes in his previous four starts. Furthermore he had finished 33^rd and 27^th here the previous two years so the signs were there. Kirk meanwhile had finished seventh here the year before and prior to missing the cut in Phoenix had posted back to back third place finishes in the Sony and the Amex so the clues were clearly there.

Beyond that though the picture gets very murky as Harrington and Mitchell had no form coming in to speak of, and no positive history on the course, although of course Harrington had the obvious British Open link, while 2020 winner Im arrived here on the back of nothing better than 29^th place in his previous four starts and a 51^st place finish on his debut in the event the previous year. 2021 winner Jones had posted a fourth here many years ago but had done nothing of note in the event over the past ten years and after a solid West Coast swing had played poorly in his first two starts in Florida. As a two time champion of his home Open though his pedigree in tough windy conditions was not in doubt and he certainly fitted the profile of international winners.

2024 champion Eckroat had missed the cut on his previous visit here and although he had made four of his five cuts in the season prior to his win he had managed nothing better than 25^th. Finally last years winner Highsmith had started his second season on Tour with three missed cuts in his first four starts before showing a glimpse of what was to come with a 17^th in Mexico the week before. He had though missed the cut here on his only previous visit the year before.

One thing that it has historically paid dividends to take note of here is players arriving at the event who would benefit from the tour moving across to the East Coast and therefore switching from the Poa Annua greens on to Bermuda Greens. This was particularly pertinent in 2023 with Kirk, the previous year with Straka and in 2019 and 2020 with both Im and Mitchell, all players with East Coast links and who had clearly indicated before that they were far more comfortable on Bermuda.

Finally in terms of correlating courses there appears to be a clear link with another track, which features plenty of water hazards, TPC Twin Cities, which hosts the 3M Open. Michael Thompson has triumphed at both courses, recent 3M winner Lee Hodges has a strong record here, while others to have performed well at TPC Twin Cities over recent years include former Champions Mitchell and Im as well as Emiliano Grillo.  Meanwhile this link was rubber stamped again in 2024 as Jhonattan Vegas who had historically performed well in both events bagged the trophy at the 3M Open.

Meanwhile the link struck again last year with Jake Knapp posting top tens in both events and Kurt Kitayama triumphing at the 3M [with us on board] having been third here before.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a predominantly dry week with temperatures in the high 70s with a chance of a shower or two along the way.

Wind as is normally the case here will be a factor with gusts around 20mph+ showing as a possibility through all four days.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

 RYAN GERARD – 16/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED 23rd

I shall start this week with two fairly obvious selections before wrapping up with three more leftfield ones.

The first and most obvious pick I can’t ignore is Ryan Gerard.

Gerard first came to prominence in this event three years ago when he produced a fairytale week here to finish fourth, having got in to the tournament as a Monday qualifier.

Gerard then morphed that finish in to an 11^th place in Puerto Rico the week after, however despite also finishing fifth at the Barracuda later in the year a string of missed cuts along the way as well meant he was unable to turn the Special Temporary Membership he got in to a full tour card for 2024.

Not to be daunted though Ryan returned to the Korn Ferry Tour for 2024 and with a win and four top tens on the year he comfortably did enough to bag his full playing rights for 2025.

Ryan then produced an excellent full debut season on tour, which saw him bag a maiden win at the Barracuda and his first top ten at a Major at the PGA, to finish 39^th in the Fedex rankings. If that wasn’t enough he then travelled halfway round the world just before Christmas to Mauritius to finish second and in doing so wrap up an end of year top 50 world ranking and his spot in the Masters.

On to 2026 then and Gerard has picked up exactly where he left off notching back to back runner up finishes at the Sony and Amex when we have been on board.

While Ryan has cooled slightly since on the Poa of California, his greatest strength, his ball striking, has stayed hot, something shown by the fact he ranked fourth in Approach play last week at Riviera when finishing 28^th, with the putter letting him down.

A player who clearly has something a ‘bit extra’ about him Gerard is someone I want to keep onside this year as we have already and as he returns to the Bermuda this week it is hard not to see him being in the hunt come Sunday.

MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN – 22/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED MC

Another player who it should certainly pay to keep onside this year is Michael Thorbjornsen.

The former amateur star started life slowly on the PGA Tour last year however after a posted a runner up finish by the coast at the Corales early in April he never really looked back going on to notch three further solo top tens amongst a string of solid performances.

On to 2026 and again Michael has started the year strongly posting a top 20 at the Farmers followed by a third place finish in Phoenix, where he came incredibly close to bagging his maiden win.

Not unsurprisingly after the let down of Phoenix Thorbjornsen struggled the following week at Pebble Beach.

Having now had a week off to regroup and reflect though I expect the 24yr old to get straight back on the horse and the challenge he faces this week should be very much to his liking.

Expanding on this and Michael’s strengths certainly lie from tee to green, which as we know is exactly what is needed here. Significantly as well we don’t have to speculate around him being suited to the course as by far his best performance in his struggles on his first couple of months on tour last year came when he opened up with two 67s on his way to 39^th place.

To sum up Thorbjornsen is clearly a player who will be winning soon and I am happy to have him on side this week.

CHANDLER BLANCHET – 150/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC

For the first of my speculative plays I will roll the dice on Chandler Blanchet.

Blanchett arrived on the PGA Tour courtesy of a break out Korn Ferry Tour season which saw him win twice to finish second on the tour rankings with second of those wins coming in Florida at the season ending Tour Championship.

The fact that Chandler triumphed in the Sunshine State should not come as a huge surprise as he was born and raised there and played all his college golf there.

Chandler has started life on the PGA Tour fairly unspectacularly with four straight missed cuts, however since struggling at the Sony he has been a lot more solid posting rounds of level par or under par in each other event.

Looking at Blanchet’s stats and he ranked second last season on the Korn Ferry for GIR while this season despite his poor start his approach numbers are positive.

Chandler should undoubtedly be relishing the tour heading east this week then and I am happy to roll the dice that he can spring to life in his home state on a layout which should suit.

ADAM SVENSSON –  150/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC

I will admit this isn’t the first time I have been drawn down the rabbit hole with Adam Svensson at PGA National, however with the odds being dangle this week I am willing to chance him again.

The history here with Adam and the reason for jumping on board again is as follows.

Firstly Adam spent his college days in Miami, so just down the coast from this venue, and he has shown he is very much at home on wind effected coastal tracks notably when winning on the Korn ferry Tour in the Bahamas.

More pertinently though prior to making waves on the Korn Ferry Tour Adam’s finest hour after turning pro came on this very course when he won the Web.com Q School by seven shots in 2015.

In addition to this the Canadian resides locally in Palm Beach Gardens, so his level of comfortability/familiarity with the Champions course at PGA National must be huge.

Adam’s best performance in this event came when we were onboard in 2022 and he finished ninth, just out of the places.

Since then Svensson landed his maiden tour title again by the coast at the RSM however it is fair to say that following on from this he has lost his way.

After losing his card last year though Adam regained it through Q School.

2026 has seen him start sluggishly making just one cut at the Sony although he did post a 63 at the Amex as well. His approach play numbers though, which we know is his strength, has been good. I’ll take a chance then that the return back to a venue we know he has really strong memories of can spark him in to life for a big week.

ZACH BACHOU –  200/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 23rd

Finally I will end this weeks team with another speculative plan on Zach Bachou.

Zach was a member of the much lauded Oklahoma team which included Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, Austin Eckroat, and Kris Ventura, however unlike his fellow team members his journey to the PGA Tour has been far more circuitous.

Finally though Zach pieced it altogether last year to post four top tens and a win to land his place in the big league.

Starting out this year then and Bachou has quietly produced some solid results making all four cuts with a best of 13^th at the Amex.

On to this week then and returning to the fact that Zach spent his college days at OSU I would expect him to be more than accomplished in the wind, something that we know his fellow team mate Austin Eckroat who won here is.

A look at Bachou’s stats for this year to date and last shows that his strengths lie in his approach play and potentially on the greens and I would certainly expect him to be more comfortable on the Bermuda.

I’ll take a chance then that Zach can build oh his solid West Coast form and step things up further now back on the East Coast.