Texas Children’s Houston Open
It was another frustrating week for us at the Valspar in what is turning in to a frustrating start to our year.
Our team as a whole struggled with three of the five missing the cut and it was left in the end for Jordan Spieth and Ryo Hisatsune to fly the flag in to the weekend. With Hisatsune then never really getting out of second gear all week our hopes were left pinned on Spieth. Unfortunately though the Texan littered the early part of the week with some wild tee to green game and short missed putts, while come Sunday when his long game fired he missed a host of birdie chances before ultimately finishing a shot out of the frame.
The tournament itself was won by Matt Fitzpatrick who built on the promise of his recent form to close out a one shot victory going bogey free over the weekend on the tough Copperhead layout. No doubt a victory had been coming for the Englishman however like many others I am guessing I had taken a view heading in to the week that some disappointment from last weeks near miss at Sawgrass would leak in to this week. Clearly though that was not the case!
So we move on and the tour heads for Houston, Texas, for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The event, which had historically held the pre Masters warm up slot since 2007 moved to a new place in the calendar in 2019 becoming part of the Fall series before in 2020, through the quirk of the Tour’s rescheduling around the Covid-19 pandemic, it found itself back in its historical pre Masters warm up slot. Finally then after the 2021 and 2022 events the tournament took a years hiatus before returning in 2024 to the spring schedule as the penultimate event prior to the Masters and it remains in that slot.
The tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston from 2006 [formerly known as Redstone Golf Club] up until 2020 when the event moved to Memorial Park Golf Course, a venue in downtown Houston, which had previously hosted the event from 1951-1963.
With several big names looking to give their games a final fine tune before heading up Magnolia Lane Texan Scottie Scheffler heads up the market. The world number one is then followed by Chris Gotterup, defending Champion Min Woo Lee, Jake Knapp and Brooks Koepka.
COURSE
Memorial Park GC is a Par 70 measuring just over 7400yds, featuring five par 3s and three par fives.
The course was originally designed by John Bredemus who was also one of the original course architects involved in Colonial CC in Fort Worth, Texas, the home of the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The course first opened for play in 1936 and hosted the Houston Open from 1951 – 1963.
The greens are MiniVerde Bermuda.
A municipal parkland course, which at approximately $38 to play must make it one, if not the, most accessible PGA Tour courses to the general public, Memorial Park underwent a significant redesign under the tutelage of Tom Doak in the lead up to hosting this event.
This was Doak’s first involvement in the design/redesign of a PGA Tour course, however he is the man responsible for The Renaissance GC in Scotland, which has hosted the Scottish Open on the European Tour over recent years and this along with comments Doak made in the build up to his work at Memorial Park are certainly worth considering.
Doak’s aim in essence was to create a course that players would have to think their way around…Here are a few of his comments whilst he was undertaking the redesign.
None of the players I talked to thought it needed to be any longer," Doak said. "The bottom line is you can't defeat tour pros with length. The holes that are more interesting to them are the holes that are kind of in between, and they don't know what to do. A 500-yard par-4 is just a driver, 8-iron anyway. You kind of play into their hands. You think you're trying to challenge the long hitter, but what you're really doing is giving everybody but the long hitters no chance of competing."
In relation to the greens. “We can't make them really small but we can make the targets feel small, either long and skinny on a par 5 or the par 4s angling left to right so if you drive it one side you might be able to come down the length of the green, but if you come in from the other side, you've got to stop it pretty fast.
"We want them to feel fairly traditional," Doak added. "We don't want it to be a space-agey thing.".
Alongside Doak in the project the ‘Player Consultant’ on hand was Brooks Koepka and prior to the first playing here in 2020 Koepka had this to say.
“I think it's a very tough golf course,” with the rough being the way it is, you've got to put the ball in the fairway and then it's a second-shot golf course. You really have to putt a good strike on the ball, being able to spin it, be good with your long irons. There's quite a few long holes. But at the same time, it makes it quite fun if you do miss the green because you have so many options. You could putt it, you could bump-and-run it, you could flop it. It really gives the player a lot of options where I feel like you're never quite out of it.”
The latter comment from Koepka is certainly worth dwelling on as with the winning scores being 13- under and 10- under in 2020 and 2021. Things did get a bit easier for Finau in 2022 when he triumphed on 16- under however things were trickier again in 2024 as shown by Jaeger’s winning total of 12- under. Last year however Min Woo Lee triumphed with a course best total of 20- under.
HISTORY
When looking at this tournament historically as it was held in the pre Masters warm up slot the main consideration was always the ‘Augusta factor’ and invariably the winner would be someone from the second tier of players who was looking for a confidence boost leading in to the years first major, or indeed someone who needed the win to make it to Augusta.
In 2019 of course this went out of the window, however in 2020 the pre Masters ‘warm up factor’ was back in play and could clearly be seen in the way Dustin Johnson was ‘taken down’ by maiden Carlos Ortiz before DJ went on to bag the Green Jacket the following week. This comment is not in anyway meant to belittle the achievement of Ortiz who played superbly to win the trophy, however clearly as a Texas based player looking to win on Tour for the first time he was far more motivated for that triumph than Johnson who had one eye firmly fixed on the following week.
Since 2021 the ‘Augusta Factor’ is no longer in theory relevant, however I would still say that Scheffler had one eye on his build up to the Masters in 2024 when here he lost out to Jaeger.
I have listed below the winners of the event going back to 2012 however we need to very much bear in mind that only the last five editions have been played at this venue.
2025 Min Woo Lee*
2024 Stephan Jaeger*
2022 Tony Finau*
2021 Jason Kokrak*
2020 Carlos Ortiz*
2019 Lanto Griffin
2018 Ian Poulter
2017 Russell Henley
2016 Jim Herman
2015 JB Holmes
2014 M Jones
2013 DA Points
2012 H Mahan
*Played at Memorial Park.
Let’s take a closer look then at the final top ten from 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 & 2025, which were played here.
2025
1 MW Lee.
T2 G Woodland, S Scheffler.
4 S Valimaki
T5 W Clark, T Pendrith, R McIlroy, A Tosti
9 R Gerard
10 M Hughes
2024
1 S Jaeger
T2 S Scheffler, T Detry, T Finau, T Moore, A Tosti
T7 M Greyserman, B Horschel, D Skinns, A Rai.
2022
1 T Finau
2 T Alexander
3 B Taylor
T4 A Noren, T Mullinax, A Smalley
T7 A Rai, A Hadwin.
T9 J Rose, S Jaeger, S Scheffler, K Mitchell, G Woodland, J Dahmen, J Bramlett.
2021
1 J Kokrak -10
T2 K Tway & S Scheffler – 8
4 K Hickok -7
T5 M Trainer & J Dahmen -6.
T7 R Streb, S Burns, R Henley & C Tringale.
2020
1 C Ortiz -13
T2 D Johnson & H Masuyama -11
4 T Gooch -9
T5 B Koepka & S Straka -8
T7 M Hughes, T Hatton, S Burns & J Day.
With the ‘pre masters’ caveat in play in 2020 and with only five years to go on there is probably not too much we can read in to these leaderboards, however for what it is worth the two subsequent winners at Augusta finished joint runner up in the 2020 outing, while the 2021 & 2024 runner up here Scheffler now has two Green Jacket’s of course, giving some merit to the view that the ‘run off’ areas around the greens would show some similarity to Augusta. Ultimately though of course these players are simply class acts who can perform anywhere.
Perhaps it is more pertinent then to take a closer look at the leaderboards in relation to correlating course form with one obvious point to note being that the 2021 winner, Kokrak had triumphed at Colonial CC in the Charles Schwab earlier in the year and with both events being held in Texas and having the same original course designer there is an obvious link.
In addition as I always say in Texas events it is key to look at the success of players with Lone Star State connections here.
This point is highlighted by the fact that three of the previous ten winners of the event Mahan, Jones and 2020 champion Ortiz all based themselves in Texas. Furthermore the man who was heartbreakingly [for those of us who had backed him!] beaten by Ian Poulter in the 2018 Play off, Beau Hossler is another Texas resident and college attendee.
Meanwhile two of the top four home here in 2021 Scheffler and Hickok are Texas guys through and through.
While aside from Scheffler there were no Texas guys prominent on the 2022 leaderboard if we then look at 2024s runners up we have Texas native Taylor Moore along with Scheffler again.
Away from Texas one other obvious course correlation that has developed is with last weeks event the Valspar and with both tracks featuring five par 3s this is perhaps not surprising.
Looking at the leaderboards over the four editions here and 2021 champion Kokrak has a strong Valspar record and seventh home Sam Burns is a two time champion there. In 2022 we can see both former Valspar Champion and nearly man from the 2024 Valspar Keith Mitchell in the top ten, while last year the 2023 Valspar Champion Taylor Moore was runner up here.
Finally another striking course correlation has appeared with the Mexico Open at Vidanta. If we look at the two events we will see Finau, has triumphed in both while Jaeger the 2024 winner here was third in Mexico the same year. Furthemore Valimaki has been fourth and second in both events while Tosti who has thrived here also has a top 10 in Mexico.
From the point of view of previous course form here prior to winning, putting the maiden winner here, Ortiz, to one side, Kokrak and Lee were making their debuts here when they triumphed while Finau had finished fourth and missed the cut on his two previous visits. Only Jaeger then with a ninth the year before had given us any clues on that front.
Finally if we look at Ortiz stats from 2020 he ranked fifth from tee to green and fifth in putting however his accuracy off the tee was not good, ranking only 76th. Meanwhile runners up Johnson and Matsuyama also ranked second and sixth respectively from tee to green for the week. Kokrak’s stats shows us that he ranked second in approach play and third in putting while again lacking accuracy off the tee. One of the runners up Tway meanwhile ranked second on the greens and third off the tee. Min Woo Lee though actually struggled off the tee on the way to his win doing most of his best work on the greens.
Finau then bossed the field in pretty much all areas ranking second off the tee, ninth in approach, second in putting and first both in accuracy and GIR. Finally Jaeger triumphed largely due to a hot short game week ranking third in putting and ninth around the greens, while a solid 38th off the tee, 37th in approach and 32nd in driving accuracy.
A mixed picture all in all then but one thing that would be clear as a whole is that accuracy off the tee is not key here but solid approach play and strong work on the greens is.
WEATHER FORECAST
We let set for a warm sunny dry week in Texas with temperatures in the high 80.
The wind often a key factor in Texas looks set to play its part as well with gusts of 20mph+ a possibility on all four days.
As we know though this will quite possibly change!
PICKS
I have gone with six players this week as follows;
SAM BURNS – 22/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
I will start this week by chancing Sam Burns.
Lets be honest since bagging the most recent of his five tour titles at the Matchplay in 2023 Burns has largely disappointed as he has lacked the killer instinct when needed to add to his trophy cabinet, although it should be noted that he was undoubtedly dealt a rough hand at Oakmont in the US Open last summer when right in the hunt. Still though I am sure Sam will be the first to admit that things haven’t quote progressed as he would have hoped since that Matchplay victory.
On his day though there is no doubt that Burns remains a class act and five PGA wins before turning 30 is clearly no mean feat.
2026 so far for Sam has seen more of the same with a couple of strong performances at Pebble Beach and most recently at Sawgrass, mixed with a bunch of poorer efforts.
On to this week then and why Sam particularly leaps off the page is his correlating course form. A winner in Texas at the Charles Schwab which shares the same course designer Sam is also a two time winner at the Valspar, which fits really nicely here with its five par 3s.
If we then look at his course form we see that Sam boasts two top tens in four previous visits here.
Burns’ best weapon as we know is always his putter, and with strength on the greens key here that will hopefully hold him in good stead.
To sum up Burns is overdue a return to the winners enclosure and this lower key event looks an ideal opportunity for him to pick off another win.
DAVIS THOMPSON – 60/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next cab of the rank is Davis Thompson.
Since winning the John Deere Classic in impressive style in 2024 when we were onboard Thompson hasn’t quite pushed on as expected with last year seeing him post just one top ten on the way to 97th place in the Fedex standings.
Moving on to this year and Davis has made five of his seven cuts with his standout performance to date coming when fourth in Puerto Rico recently.
Looking at Davis’ stats for the year and while his long game has been solid the real issue has been the putter as he currently sits 146th on tour in this category. It was interesting then to see that at the Valspar last week on his way to 46th the putter improved hugely as he ranked 15th for the week on the greens. In typical fashion though he struggled at times with his approach play. With regards to the putter though it would seem a return to the East Coast and more familiar Bermuda greens, which we will see again this week has helped.
On to course history and Thompson has caught the eye here previously. Last year on his way to 27th he posted rounds of 65 and 64 on Friday and Saturday, while the previous year when in no great form on arrival he posted two 68s and a 66 when finishing 21st.
If Davis can continue the improvement on the greens he showed last week and align that to the more consistent tee to green game he usually dishes up then I can see him being a serious player here this week.
PATRICK RODGERS – 60/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10
Moving on and I can’t resist including Patrick Rodgers this week.
Since finishing third in the season opening Sony Open while Rodgers hasn’t threatened a win since then he is quietly putting together a really solid season, making all of his cuts and currently sitting 27th in the Fedex standings.
The key to this has been a noticeable up tick in his approach play, usually his weak link, which he currently 48th for on tour. This no helped Patrick finish a hugely impressive 11th at Sawgrass recently, a venue he has historically really struggled at.
Looking course history and a best of 16th doesn’t leap off the page at us however Patrick has a really strong bank of form at the Mexico Open, which we know sits well here, while a ranking of sixth at present in par 3 scoring for the season bodes well here with five par 3s in play.
I have no doubt that Rodgers will break through on tour eventually and this lower key event where his strong putter should also help looks an ideal opportunity.
RYAN FOX 55/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
I have to be honest I was very pleasantly surprised by the initial odds on offer for Ryan Fox this week and while he has understandably been well backed already I am more than happy to jump on board.
Fox enjoyed a break out season in 2025 winning twice on the PGA Tour at Myrtle Beach and in Canada.
Longer than average off the tee and strong on the greens Ryan has all the tools to flourish here and he showed that last year notching two 65s on his way to 15th place, a finish that would have been higher but for a sluggish Sunday. It was though noticeably his best performance of the year on the PGA Tour until his win in Myrtle Beach.
This year Ryan has been really solid in his four starts Stateside with a best of seventh at Riviera.
Meanwhile if the wind does pick up a bit as forecast this week his pedigree on breezy conditions on the DP World Tour should certainly help.
Returning here then as a two time tour winner to a course, which looks a great fit for him I am very keen to have Ryan on side.
ALDRICH POTGIETER – 70/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Next up I can’t get away from the obvious correlating case for Aldrich Potgieter.
Potgieter is very much a rough diamond of a feast or famine type player and you never really know what you will get from him one week to the next. This was encapsulated by the fact that he had a really poor week when we were on him earlier this year at Torrey Pines only for him to pop up in the places a fortnight later at Riviera.
Since that fifth place finish in the Genesis Aldrich has gone on to miss his next two cuts at Bay Hill and the Players, in fact aside from the fifth at Riviera he has missed the cut in five of his other six starts, while finishing well down the field in the no cut event at Pebble Beach.
Pretty poor stuff as a whole then however the fact remains that on his day the South African is a prodigious talent capable of competing with the best.
What of this week then, well the two clear pointers telling us that Aldrich should enjoy this track are his runner up finish in Mexico last year, which we know ties really well, as well his out of the blue sixth place at Colonial last year.
In addition With Min Woo Lee, Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak all winning here clearly length of the tee helps, which we know he has in spades, while as we know accuracy off it is not crucial.
The obvious downside is that Aldrich missed the cut here last year however he was struggling at the time, with perhaps his confidence knocked from the play off defeat in Mexico. I’ll take Aldrich this week then to bounce back to form on a track, which should really suit his game.
MATTHIEU PAVON – 175/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10
Finally this week I will throw a dart at big odds at Matthieu Pavon.
Pavon shocked the PGA Tour in 2024 when as a rookie off the DP World Tour he came out and won the Farmers on just his third start. He then went on to finish 12th at the Masters and fifth at the US Open before rounding out the year in 17th in the Fedex standings. Some debut season then and he certainly showed the next wave of DP World Tour grads heading to the PGA Tour what could be done!
Perhaps not unsurprisingly 2025 was then a real let down for Pavon as his best finish was 31st and had it not been for the fact that his card was secure from his win at Torrey Pines he would have been heading back across the Atlantic to the DP World Tour.
2026 though has started far more promisingly for the Frenchman with his finishes of 27th at the Amex and 17th at the Cognizant bettering anything from more last year. Most eye-catchingly though he followed up with an 11th place last week at the Valspar where he ranked second on the greens.
Pavon is no doubt still struggling with his iron play but the confidence must be returning and we know what he can do with his tail up. I’ll take a chance then that the putter, which he ranks fourth with on tour this season can stay hot, a key asset here, and he can keep the momentum going from last week.