Valero Texas Open

Valero Texas Open

It was a disappointing week for us in Houston as once Sam Burns faded on Friday following a promising start we were never in the hunt. Unfortunately after a solid start to the year we are going through one of those quieter spells at the moment which inevitable come occasionally. Fingers crossed we will be back on track soon!

The event will be remembered though as one of those ‘feel good’ story weeks that come along from time to time as Gary Woodland returned to the winners enclosure after his much publicised battle following brain surgery.

The 2019 US Open Champion had only in recent weeks come out with how much he has battled PTSD since the surgery and the manner in which it impacts his daily life and of course his golf game, so to watch him now notch his first win since his Pebble Beach triumph was fantastic. You could certainly see how much the victory meant to an understandably emotional Woodland afterwards.

Moving on and the tour heads to San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Texas Open for the last stop before the first major of the year, The Masters.

As was the case in 2013, 2019 and for the last five years the tournament takes the slot of being the final event pre Masters whereas on other occasions the event has been held in the weeks following the Masters.

The AT & T Oaks course at TPC San Antonio has been host to the event since 2010.

As is usually the case many big names are choosing to swerve the event the week before a Major however there is still a pretty decent field in attendance with Tommy Fleetwood heading up the market. The Englishman is then followed in the market by Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth.

COURSE

The course is a Greg Norman Design with consultation from Sergio Garcia. One angle therefore is to look at form at the other Greg Norman designs played on the PGA Tour which until recently included the El Cameleon course formerly used for the OHL Mayakoba along with Vidanta Vallarata course now used for the Mexico Open.

The course is a Par 72 and measures just over 7400 yards.

The greens are Bermudagrass over seeded with velvet bent grass & potrivialis.

The AT & T Oaks course historically has undoubtedly been one of the tougher par 72 cookies on the PGA Tour to crack.

Finding the fairways has always been key here as the rough has been penal and straying off line has lead to all kinds of trouble.

This is something Kevin Na will certainly vouch for as he memorably made a 16 here on the par 4 9^th in 2011.

More recent editions had seen a noticeable change to the toughness of the test though with a previously unheard of -20 total being posted in 2024. Last year though conditions lead to a much tougher challenge once more with a 9- under winning total.

As a whole though the easier conditions over more recent years can be put down to changes that were made in an attempt to replicate Augusta conditions with fairways widened and rough shortened. In addition the level of winds, always a factor in Texas, affects scoring. It should be said though that the two players who posted -20 in 2024 to make the play off, Denny McCarthy and eventual winner Akshay Bhatia finished nine clear of the third man home.

The course also features Pete Dye type run of areas around the greens with the aim again being that with the event taking the pre Masters warm up slot these can be shaved in an attempt to replicate ‘Augusta type’ conditions around the greens.

HISTORY

As mentioned Above the AT & T Oaks Course has been the host course for this event since 2010 when the event moved across from La Cantera.

So let’s take a look at the winners here going back to 2011;

2025 Brian Harman

2024 Akshay Bhatia

2023 Corey Conners

2022 JJ Spaun

2021 Jordan Spieth

2019 Corey Conners

2018 Andrew Landry

2017 Kevin Chappell

2016 Charley Hoffman

2015 Jimmy Walker

2014 Steven Bowditch

2013 Martin Laird

2012 Ben Curtis

2011 Brendan Steele

As we can see from this list the main strengths of these players as a whole lie in the long game and/or players who have historically performed well on tough golf courses and this ties in to the nature of the course as outlined above.

The two ‘odd ones out’ on the winners list though are Ben Curtis and Steven Bowditch, while the 2021 winner Jordan Spieth would not really be classed in that category either in theory historically, however at the time of his win he was enjoying a renaissance and his long game that week was superb as he ranked third from tee to green and fourth in approach play.

Bowditch is a Texas resident and was able to handle a windy week when he won. You could also wonder if, [allowing for Adam Scott being a winner here as well] there is an Aussie link to the course style with Greg Norman being the designer.

As for Curtis, what can you say, he’s Ben Curtis! From what I remember of the year he won he got up and down from everywhere and holed everything.

Looking at this list of winners it would appear therefore that as a norm the ‘identikit’ winner is a solid ball striker who ‘gets it out there’ of the tee.

One other factor, which cannot be ignored here over recent years is the presence of players with Texas connections on the leaderboard with many Lone Star natives/residents or players who have attended college there making the frame.

These included Tom Hoge last year, Si Woo Kim, Danny Lee, Landry, O’Hair, Walker [x2], Gay, Palmer [x3], Piller, Spieth, Beau Hossler, Dylan Frittelli and Sam Stevens in 2024.

In addition as noted above the 2014 edition was won by a Texas based Aussie, Steven Bowditch.

With the event now holding the pre Augusta slot it is also worth looking at the recent history of the Houston Open when it used to be held in this same slot and if we do that we’ll see that the last four editions were won by a player not yet in the Masters field, Poulter, Henley, Herman & Jones, whilst in 2013, when this event held that slot, Martin Laird grabbed an Augusta place with his victory.

More recently this event in 2019 was won by Corey Conners, a player who not only wasn’t in the Augusta field heading in to this week but wasn’t even in this field until he Monday qualified!

In 2021 this trend was bucked by former Masters Champion Spieth winning however having been winless in nearly four years as his game slumped he was certainly not focused on ‘building up to Augusta’ and was fully motivated on a return to the winners enclosure.

In 2022 though this ‘formula’ was apparent again as JJ Spaun punched his ticket to a trip up Magnolia Lane, however Conners who became a two time champion here in 2023 was already in the Augusta field. 2024 champion Bhatia posted a win here to punch his ticket to Augusta, however last years winner Harman was already eligible to head down Magnolia Lane however the win was his first since his Open triumph two year prior.

The obvious thing to conclude therefore is that this week is very much about motivation. If you are in the Augusta field already you are most likely to be tinkering with your game, thinking ahead to next week and in the case of big names, whether consciously or not, not wanting to peak too early. Whereas if you are not in Augusta you are quite simply here to win.

There have of course been exceptions to this over the years with players like Phil Mickelson not afraid to hack up the week before a Major and then win again the following week, however all in all I would much rather focus on players I see as motivated this week, whether that be because they are winless for a lengthy period or need the win to qualify for the Masters.

Course form here has proved a guide to a certain extent over the years, with the likes of Walker and Hoffman in particular course specialists and Chappell as well all having good form here prior to winning, while Spieth had previously finished runner up here. Conners had also put down a marker finishing 26^th the previous year on debut. In addition of course he was winning for the second time here in 2023.

Equally though Landry and Bowditch had no ‘previous’ here to go on while 2022 winner Spaun had a best of 26^th here in four visits with two missed cuts along the way so don’t be too put off if the man you fancy has not done much here before. Meanwhile last years winner Bhatia had played here twice before missing the cut and finishing 46^th. Finally to bring us up to date Harman had no great form here with a best of 16^th having been a sporadic visitor over the years.

With regards to form coming in Conners arrived here on the back of four MC in five events in 2019 with one 41^st place finish while in 2023 he had only one finish better than 50^th, a 21^st at the API, since mid January.

The previous winner to Conners first triumph, Andrew Landry, had posted an almost identical run in with four MC and a 42^nd place finish. Similarly Spaun had nothing better than 27^th in his previous five starts, Bhatia though had produced finishes of 17^th & 11^th in his two previous starts, however Harman had missed the cut in his previous outing at the players and had posted nothing better than 17^th all year so all in all great form coming in does certainly not appear to be too significant!

The winning score has varied a lot over the years at the Oaks Course from -8 to -20 from Conners in 2019. Spaun won with -13, Bhatia posted -20 in 2024 to make the play off, however last year Harman ran out a three shot winner with a 9- under total. Ultimately the wind as well as changes to the course set up as noted earlier, which have eased the difficulty are the differentiating factors over the years.

WEATHER FORECAST

At the time of writing it unfortunately looks like we could be in for some interruptions this week with storms showing as a possibility across all four days. Hopefully they will stay away.

Temperatures look set to sit in the high 80s before cooling off on Sunday.

Wind is invariably an issue in Texas and this week it looks to be a factor again with gusts of 20/25mph in the forecast over the course of the event particularly on Friday and Saturday.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

SI WOO KIM – 20/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

In an event, which has favoured renowned ball strikers over the years known for approach play I will start things off with Si Woo Kim.

Si Woo is having a stellar season to date with the only thing lacking so far being a win.

So far 2026 has seen him post three top tens and two further top 15 finishes in eight starts.

Currently fifth in approach play, second from tee to green and second in driving accuracy if Si Woo’s putter even half co operates he is going to be a threat.

Last time out at Sawgrass, a course we know Si Woo loves he actually produced his worst finish of the year to date, 50^th, a performance, which I perhaps suspect came from putting too much expectation on himself to produce on his arguably favourite layout.

Having then had a couple of weeks off Si Woo returns to action in Texas, where like many of the Koreans he bases himself, on a course, which really should play to his strength.

Looking at Si Woo’s history here and barring last years missed cut, where it must be said his form was far inferior to this year, he has backed up this view notching a best of fourth along with three further top 25 finishes in eight visits.

Unlike the rest of my team this week Si Woo is already in the field for Augusta however with his last win coming over three years ago at the Sony he is long overdue another trophy and will surely be motivated to get in the hunt here.

DANIEL BERGER – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

On the same theme next up I am keen to include Daniel Berger.

Since finding his feet again following major back issues Berger has threatened to return to the winners enclosure on a few occasions, however he has not quite been able to get over the line.

The most recent opportunity came of course just a few weeks back at Bay Hill when having lead all but wire to wire Daniel was pipped in a play off by Akshay Bhatia. Perhaps not unsurprisingly Berger then produced a tame week at the Players the week after to finish 66^th.

With that Players outing representing Berger’s sixth straight start it was good to see him then have a couple of weeks off.

Fully refreshed then and raring to go Daniel arrives here with his trademark iron play firing, he currently sits sixth in approach play for the year, exactly what we are looking for this week.

We then have the issue of motivation for the week, the 32yr old is not currently in the Augusta field so it is ‘win or bust’ for him on that front here.

I also like the fact that Daniel is a winner in Texas already having triumphed at the Charles Schwab, while two of his further three PGA Tour titles came in the South East as well, in Tennessee on another TPC layout.

Berger has no great history here with a best of 30^th in three visits, which came last year, however as noted earlier previous course form is not necessarily a big pointer to success here. Instead then I’ll focus on Daniel’s strong iron play this year and trust him to build on a good start to 2026 and finally return to the winners circle.

AUSTIN SMOTHERMAN – 60/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up in a week where ‘flushers’ are the order of the day and players with Texas links often come to the fore it is hard to ignore the credentials of Austin Smotherman.

Smotherman is a player who has bounced back and forth between the PGA Tour and the Korn ferry Tour over the years however having bagged two wins on the Korn Ferry last year to regain his full card he looks like he is finally ready to make his mark at this level.

Currently at 37^th in the Fedex standings Austin has posted two top ten finishes so far this year, including a Tour career best second at the Cognizant, as well as a 13^th in the Players, in amongst some missed cuts and a WD at Bay Hill. Basically then if the course suits his strengths he can very much be a factor.

Returning to those strengths and Smotherman currently sits second in approach play, with the putter not unsurprisingly the weak link. Returning to the roll of honour here though and any event, which has seen Corey Conners triumph twice in tells us all we need to know about the skill sets that are most needed for success.

As noted earlier Austin spent his college days in Texas so he really should be comfortable here.

Despite then having a record of 61 MC in his two previous visits I’ll take the 2026 version of Smotherman to thrive on a track that should play to his strengths.

BEAU HOSSLER – 140/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up is another player with Texas connections, Beau Hossler.

Hossler as long term readers will know is a player who always comes on to my radar when the tour hits Texas, his adopted home state. From that point of view Beau was very much in my thinking heading in to Houston last week, however his poor record at the Memorial Park was enough to have me leave him out and in all honesty it was therefore somewhat worrying to see him edge his way in to contention on Saturday. In the end though Beau stalled before finishing 21^st. Still though in a season, which has seen Beau very much struggle to date that represented his best finish of the year so far.

.Heading in to this week then and with that clear pointer being given to us last week, with TPC San Antonio a venue he has had some past success at, I am very keen to jump on board.

With regards to that past success and Beau has made the cut here on his last seven visits with a best of fourth in 2022 when we were on board. Indeed with Beau having held the lead at the turn on Sunday that year things could have been much better for him, and indeed us, however sadly a double bogey seven on the 14^th wrecked his chances.

Still though, add that to his agonising play off defeat in Houston in 2018, along with having been right in the hunt through 36 holes at the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2022 and also having finished 17^th that year at the Byron Nelson on the back of three missed cuts, we know Beau comes to life in Texas.

Hossler is undoubtedly an underachiever to date on the PGA Tour, however at only 31 he still has plenty of time to break through and with that break through when it comes quite likely to come in the Lone Star State I am happy to chance him here at the odds this week.

KARL VILIPS – 175/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

Finally I’ll take the bait at the odds that last weeks iron play performance from Karl Vilips was not a complete flash in the pan.

The hugely talented Vilips did this column a favour when landing the spoils in Puerto Rico at juicy odds last year.

Since then he has gone largely awol with his only other solo finish of note last year coming at the Charles Schwab where he was 11^th.

This year things have been slightly improved from Karl with him at least making four of his seven cuts.

Returning to last weeks 19^th place in Houston and Vilips ranked second for the week in approach play while his putter, normally his strength cooled slightly.

Add that solid effort last week to the 11^th at Colonial last year and it would seem that for whatever reason Karl enjoys golf in Texas.

At only 24yrs old and having posted two wins over the past two years, one on the Korn Ferry and then on the PGA Tour, Vilips is clearly a player with huge potential who knows how to win. I’ll roll the dice this week then that he can build on last weeks strong iron play and get in to the hunt at big odds.