Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament

It was another blank week for us at Colonial as our struggles of 2026 continue.

Four of our five picks including our bigger name selections Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau failed to even make the weekend meaning it was left to AJ Ewart to fly our flag. The rookie played solidly all week but despite hanging around the periphery of the places throughout the weekend he was unable to seriously threaten the frame on Sunday.

The tournament itself was won by Russell Henley who produced a tremendous closing burst to birdie the final three holes in regulation before repeating the feat on the first extra hole to deny Eric Cole a maiden tour title.

You have to feel a bit sorry for Cole who didn’t do much wrong down the stretch making some clutch pars in the tough firm fast conditions. Ultimately though it was another reminder of just how hard it is to win out there.

So onwards we go and it’s time for the annual trip to ‘Jack’s place’ Muirfield Village, for the for the Memorial Tournament.

The Memorial event was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus and is played on the Nicklaus designed course at the Muirfield Village Golf Club.

As I am sure we all know by now the event is one of those on tour to have Signature Event status. The field of 72 players will be made up of the eligible top 50 from last year, the ‘next ten’, the swing five’ and a handful of sponsors exemptions.

As is pretty much always the case for the Signature events we have stellar line up in play.

Scottie Scheffler of course takes favouritism, with the world number one followed in the market by Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Ludvig Aberg & Xander Schauffele.

COURSE

Muirfield Village is a Par 72 measuring at just over 7450 yards.

The greens are Bent Grass.

Muirfield Village is seen as a classical test. Approach play is key as it is imperative to find the correct part of the undulating greens, which can, as long as the weather cooperates, run up to 13 on the stimpmeter.

With a bit more room off the tee compared to some courses, Muirfield Village is basically a second shot and in course.

Although plenty of birdies are available particularly on the par 5s there is also a lot of danger lurking with water in play on more than half of the holes, and historically thick rough around the greens.

The closing stretch of the course 16 through 18 is the toughest.

The Par 5s is where you make your score at Muirfield Village with all four Par 5s playing under Par year in year out.

I would therefore see Par 5 scoring as a key stat to look at.

Away from the four par fives and the most exciting hole on the course is arguably the par 4 14^th, which is driveable most days.

After the 2020 edition the course underwent significant renovation with the aim according to Jack Nicklaus to make the course “better, not necessarily harder”.

Most holes had the greens completely recontoured with bunker modifications and the only holes where the greens now resemble the old greens are 12, 13, 14 & 17.

Based on these changes there was a fair amount of speculation as to whether past course form would count for as much however with Rahm and Cantlay dominating Again in 2021 it appeared to be very much ‘business as usual’.

Away from Muirfield Village I would also suggest that form on other Nicklaus courses is worth taking in to consideration and one fact that stands out is that in addition to 2021 champion Jon Rahm, 2017 winner Jason Dufner is a past winner at the CareerBuilder which uses a Nicklaus course. Similarly David Lingmerth who won here in 2015 has also come close at the CareerBuilder [when losing to Dufner in a playoff].

Meanwhile 2022 champion Billy Horschel was runner up at the Nicklaus designed Concession Club, which hosted a one off Tour event in 2021,

Other Nicklaus courses to consider are PGA National home of the Honda Classic, Glen Abbey the former home of the Canadian Open and Valhalla used just recently for the PGA Championship.

HISTORY

So lets take a look at the winners since 2012;

2025 – Scottie Scheffler

2024 – Scottie Scheffler

2023 – Viktor Hovland

2022 – Billy Horschel

2021 – Patrick Cantlay

2020 – Jon Rahm

2019 – Patrick Cantlay

2018 – Bryson Dechambeau

2017 Jason Dufner

2016 William McGirt

2015 David Lingmerth

2014 Hideki Matsuyama

2013 Matt Kuchar

2012 Tiger Woods

As we can see from this list it’s been a fairly mixed bag of winners here over the years and we have seen three players Matsuyama, Lingmerth and McGirt gain there first PGA Tour wins here, with McGirt and Lingmerth’s successes in particular coming from left field.

Over recent years however the event has very much been the domain of the big names with Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm posting three wins between them over the past seven years, while in 2023, the player of the year Viktor Hovland triumphed here. Meanwhile the last two years of course Scottie Scheffler bagged the title here.

Let’s not also forget of course that the balance between Rahm and Cantlay almost certainly would have been two to one in Rahm’s favour had he not been forced to withdraw from the event on Saturday evening in 2021 after a positive Covid test when he held a six shot lead through 54 holes.

Whilst past course form is never a minus it does not appear to be a requisite here. In fact six of the winners since 2014, Rahm, Dechambeau, Dufner, McGirt, Lingmerth and Matsuyama had a best place finish of 19^th between them in eleven previous starts. [Hideki was making his course debut.] So don’t be put off if the man you have a hunch for has not done much here before.

Current form coming in is a bit more interesting and I have provided a table below to show this;

2025 – Scottie Scheffler 4 1 1 8 4

2024 – Scottie Scheffler 2 8 1 1 2

2023 – Viktor Hovland 16 2 43 59 7

2022 – Billy Horschel MC 68 21 43 9

2021 – Patrick Cantlay 23 MC MC 18 MC

2020 – Jon Rahm 27 33 37 MC 3*

2019 – Patrick Cantlay 3 3 9 24 MC

2018 – Bryson Dechambeau   42 37 4 3 38

2017 Jason Dufner   MC 13 60 5 11

2016 William McGirt   47 43 17 37 9

2015 David Lingmerth   MC 33 MC MC MC

2014 Hideki Matsuyama  10 23 38 MC MC

2013 Matt Kuchar   2 33 48 35 8

2012 Tiger Woods  40 MC 40 1 WD

*Denotes finish pre ‘lockdown’ 2020.

As we can see from this all but two of the last 14 winners, Lingmerth and Cantlay in 2021, had posted a top ten finish in their previous five starts on tour [although Rahm’s top 10 did come prior to the Tour’s break for covid 19]. Let’s also not forget that Rahm was in fine form in 2021 before his WD, having finished eighth at the PGA in his previous start, so It would seem therefore that current form is a better way in here than course form.

One other angle I feel merits consideration is par 5 scoring and it’s correlation to similar style tracks like Bay Hill where taking advantage of the par 5s is key. Longer term readers may remember that this was a large part of the case I built for Bryson in 2018 when putting him up as he had finished second at Bay Hill [also fourth at Quail Hollow, which rewards par 5 performance], and he lead the tour coming in to the week in 2018 in par 5 scoring.

Furthermore anyone who had followed the Bay Hill connection in 2022 may well have plumped for the winner Billy Horschel as he had been runner up at the API earlier in the year, while 2023 winner here Hovland had finished 10^th at Bay Hill in March, a result, which would have been much better as well bar a poor final day.

Finally as always the winning score is influenced by the elements with the lowest winning total in the last ten years coming from Patrick Cantlay in 2019 who posted -19, however in 2020 Rahm triumphed with a -9 total, while Hovland in 2023 won with a 7- under total and Scheffler posted 8- under and 10- under the past two years.

2021 saw Cantlay triumph in a play off with a -13 total although we mustn’t forget he Rahm was six clear prior to having to WD while last year Horschel posted a four shot win again with a –13 number.

For five years prior to Cantlay’s win though we saw three winning scores of -15 and two of -13 [-15 was the score required to make the play off in 2018., while Cantlay triumphed again with -13 in 2020.

It is also worth noting that one winner in the past ten years, Cantlay in 2019, has managed to post all four rounds in the 60s on route to victory

WEATHER FORECAST

The early part of the week and the first two tournament days look dry and sunny so we should see reasonably firm conditions early on. The weekend though unfortunately shows a potential for storms on both days at the time of writing.

Temperatures look set to sit around the mid-80s for the week.

Wind, which can be a factor here looks like it could be an issue this week for the players  with gusts of 20mph+ showing in the forecast across all four days.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

LUDVIG ABERG – 16/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/4 odds 1^st 5

I will start this week with Ludvig Aberg.

Aberg is a player who garners plenty of criticism for letting winning opportunities slip through his fingers on a fairly regular basis. As we have seen with Cameron Young though it doesn’t take much for a serial runner up to suddenly get the winning habit!

In addition of course the fact that we have many examples of Aberg not quite getting the job done is testament to how often he puts himself in to contention. For evidence of this we only need look at his record this year which has seen him post six top eight finishes in his last eight starts.

One of those near misses came at Bay Hill this year where Ludvig finished in a tie for third and that brings us on to one of the reasons for siding with the Swede this week. In simple terms Bay Hill has been a great reference point for Muirfield Village over the years so that third place really does mark our card for here.

Furthermore we need not speculate too much that Muirfield Village is to Ludvig’s liking as he finished fifth on debut here in 2024 while last years 16^th place came in the midst of a poor run of form which had seen him post nothing better than 54^th in his previous three starts.

Finally having noted earlier that par five scoring is a key to success at Jack’s Place the fact that Aberg sits fifth on tour in this department this year is also key.

It is over twelve months since Aberg notched the second of his two PGA Tour victories at the Genesis so he will be itching to get back in the winners circle and this looks a great opportunity for him to do so.

NICOLAI HOJGAARD – 50/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Sticking with the Scandinavian theme I will turn next to Nicolai Hojgaard.

A three time winner on the DP World Tour Nicolai has been knocking on the door for a maiden PGA Tour title for a while now and the break through stateside looks only a matter of time.

Looking at the Dane’s record this year on the PGA Tour and he has notched four top six finishes already with the most recent of these coming in in Truist where he was runner up just a couple of starts ago.

Fifth on Tour in Driving Distance not unsurprisingly Nicolai also sits fifth on Tour in the par five scoring averages so I would expect him to thrive on the four on offer here.

Hojgaard only need look at the success of Krisftoffer Reitan at Quail Hollow who he chased home to see that bagging when of these Signature Events is very much a realistic prospect and I can see him thriving on his debut at Muirfield Village this week.

SAHITH THEEGALA – 90/1 – 1pt pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next cab off the rank for me this week is Sahith Theegala.

Since having an injury disrupted 2025 Sahith has been gradually piecing his game back together.

While 2026 hasn’t been all plain sailing for him then there have been some really positive signs along the way.

Theegala can undoubtedly be a bit wayward off the tee however Muirfield Village very much known as a ‘second shot and in’ course gives you some room on that front. Hopefully then Theegala can thrive here where at his best his strengths come in to play, his approach work and on and around the greens.

Theegala’s best performance this year came at Bay Hill, which we know links well here while he has a best of fifth here in five previous visits.

Theegals has finished down the field in each of his last three starts however I have always liked Muirfield Village as a fit for his game and I am happy to take a chance that he can bounce back to form here this week.

DANIEL BERGER – 110/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Another player who catches my eye this week is Daniel Berger.

Returning to the Bay Hill theme and Berger was of course hugely unlucky to get pipped at the post at the API earlier this year having lead for all but 72 holes.

Following that near miss Daniel not unsurprisingly went slightly off the boil however he has shown signs of life again more recently playing nicely to finish 23^rd at the Cadillac before again looking solid on his way to 35^th at the PGA.

A look at Berger’s approach stats for the season show us that he ranks tenth in that department, something which bodes well for Muirfield Village. Add that to fifth place finish here on his resume and there is plenty of signs that the course should suit him.

Finally Berger is something of a specialist at PGA National, also a Nicklaus design and there are plenty of examples of players who have performed strongly at both events over the years.

Berger is certainly due another trip to the winners enclosure and having agonisingly missed out at Bay Hill I can see him going one better here.

NICK TAYLOR – 90 /1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Finally this week I shall wrap things up by taking a fairly obvious course form meets current form play in the shape of Nick Taylor.

A five time winner on the PGA Tour there is no doubting Taylor’s pedigree as a proven winner. The next step then is for him to pick off one of these flagship events.

Taylor started 2026 solidly before tailing off slightly in April. He bounced back to form though with a top ten at the Cadillac before backing that up with a 14^th in the Truist. He was then right in the hunt in the PGA before losing his way somewhat on the back nine on Sunday to slip down the board. Regardless though he is clearly producing some good stuff at the moment.

Fourth here last year when in no real form coming in Nick should be relishing his return to Muirfield Village while his approach play and around the green stats, for which he sits prominently in both departments on tour this year, give us good encouragement for this week.

If wins for Reitan at the Truist and then Aaron Rai at the PGA have taught us anything its that the biggest of events aren’t exclusively the domain of the biggest names and the Canadian looks a good fit to make a big splash at juicy odds this week.