RBC Canadian Open

RBC Canadian Open

It was another tough week for us at the Memorial as our run of poor form continued. Of our selections two missed the cut while the remaining three struggled to get in to meaningful condition. In the end only Sahith Theegala threatened the places however having started Sunday strongly he fell away on the back nine to give us another blank week.

Having been doing this for a long time now these kind of runs unfortunately come from time to time and it is just a case of trusting the process and knowing we will turn the corner eventually.

The event itself was won by JT Poston. Regardless of the tough stretch we are on it is fair to say that JT wouldn’t have been anywhere on our radar allowing for the fact that he arrived without a top 20 all year! He belied this form though to produce a superb performance all week and after wobbling down the stretch on Sunday he rallied to see off Ryan Gerard in a play off.

So onwards we go for the final event before the years third Major, the US Open as the tour heads north for the RBC Canadian Open.

In 2019 the RBC Canadian Open moved from its historical slot the week after the British Open to being played the week before the US Open. Last year it was all change again for the event as it jumped a week earlier on the schedule with the Memorial event sandwiched between this stop and the US Open. This year it is back to the norm as the event returns to its more regular slot as the final warm up event before the US Open.

 The RBC Canadian Open was first played in 1904 and has been played continuously since, bar breaks during WWI and WWII and then over the past two years.

The event is the third longest standing on the PGA Tour calendar behind the US Open and Open Championship.

The event has historically hopped around different courses in Canada however since 2013 it has been played at Glen Abbey GC in Oakville, Ontario every year apart from in 2014. In 2022 though it move to St George’s G&CC in Toronto, Ontario, a venue which last hosted this event in 2010, while in 2023 we remained in the Toronto area as Oakdale Golf & CC plays host for the first time.

In 2024 the event remained in the Ontario area at Hamilton G&CC. Last year while the event remained in the Toronto area it moved once more to a new venue TPC Toronto Osprey Valley [North Course] and we return there again this year.

Despite the fact that Rory McIlroy who has chosen to not tune up in Canada this year we have a pretty decent field as a whole. The market is headed up by Matt Fitzpatrick who is then followed by Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns and the returning Collin Morikawa.

COURSE

TPC Toronto Osprey Valley [North Course]is a par 70 measuring just under 7400yds.

The greens are Bentgrass.

A parkland style course described by its website as “being built around wide corridors and challenging green sites with deep bunkers”, the North Course at TPC Toronto was originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 before undergoing a full redesign under the guidance of Ian Andrew in 2023.

There are two Par 5s, the 1^st and the 18^th, measuring 542yds and 581yds while there are four par fours on the card measuring over 500yds.

HISTORY

With the course in play for just the second time we obviously can’t put too much stock in event form other than, however form ‘north of the border’ is of course a positive so for what it’s worth I have listed the winners of the event going back to 2010.

The winners of these events have been as follows;

2025    R Fox

2024    R McIntyre

2023    N Taylor

2022    R McIlroy

2019    R McIlroy

2018    D Johnson

2017    J Vegas

2016    J Vegas

2015    J Day

2014    T Clark

2013    B Snedeker

2012    S Piercy

2011    S O’Hair

2010    C Pettersson

Here now is the top 10 from this event when staged here last year.

1 R Fox

2 S Burns

K Yu

T4 Cam Young, M McCarty

T6 B H An, A Putnam, M Manassero

T 9 C Champ, V Perez, D Skinns, L Hodges.

What can we glean from this leaderboard? Well with only one years data not too much of course. From a correlating course point of view whether pure coincidence or not the winner Fox is a former champion at Wentworth which can also be said for Matteo Manassero who finished sixth. Furthermore Victor Perez who finished ninth has a runner up finish on his CV at Wentworth. With both being tree lined parkland layouts this is an angle worth keeping an eye on.

Looking at the stats from the event Fox produced solid numbers in all departments ranking sixth in approach play and 16^th in putting. Runner up Sam Burns then ranked 12^th in approach and ninth in putting. Third place Kevin Yu then surprisingly for him ranked sixth in putting but only 49^th in approach. He then lead the field off the tee.

The two players who tied for fourth Young and McCarty were both again strong on the greens with McCarty leading the field in that department.

Again with the caveat of only one year to go on It would seem then a hot putter is needed here with, judging by the -20 number posted by Fox and Burns last year, plenty of birdies required.

Since the event moved to the pre US Open slot in 2019 there have been four editions played in that slot. Two of those have been won by Rory McIlroy who we know is a player who loves to play the week before a Major and has no fear about ‘peaking too early’ and winning in that slot. While one was won by Nick Taylor who of course as a Canadian was fully motivated that week, before Fox triumphed last year. Aside from home players though [and McIlroy!] I would be wary of siding with any big name players who choose to tee it up here as they will most likely be tinkering with their game in advance of the years third Major.

WEATHER FORECAST

The forecast currently shows the potential for storms on Thursday and Friday, which could cause disruption before things settle down over the weekend.

Temperatures look muggy and in the high 80s for the first couple of days before coming down a notch over the weekend.

Wind does look like it could be an issue though with gusts of 25mph forecast across the week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

SHANE LOWRY –28/1 – 2pts e/w 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Call me a glutton for punishment but I shall start this week with Shane Lowry.

When you’re not in the best of tipping form turning to the Irishman who remains winless on a solo basis on the PGA Tour since his Open triumph in 2019 is probably the definition of insanity.

Ultimately though I can’t get away from the fact that Shane looks a really good fit for this track.

A regular visitor to Canada over the years Lowry clearly enjoys his time north of the border with his best finish being when runner up in the event in 2019.

On that occasion we were actually onboard with Shane and the reason we landed on him that week was, amongst other things, the link between the course used that year being designed by Harry Colt who is also responsible for Wentworth, which we know Shane loves.

This year of course it is a different track in play however the tree lined set up of the venue brought some comparisons to Wentworth again last year when the course debuted and with Ryan Fox winning and Matteo Manassero, finishing sixth, two past Wentworth winners, there was a clear connection. Add to that of course we don’t need to speculate as to him taking to the track as Shane played solidly to finish 13^th.

The Irishman arrives this year on the back of a solid week at Memorial where he finished 22^nd ranking eighth in approach play. If we then look at his stats for the year he ranks strongly across the board sitting 25^th in putting, 29^th off the tee and 43^rd in approach.

Part of the key to finding the winner here this week is no doubt working out who has the motivation the week prior to the years third Major and who is just here for a tune up before heading to New York, well from that point of view we don’t need to doubt Shane’s motivation. To put it bluntly after the trials and tribulations of this year, notably at the Cognizant of course, he’ll take a win anywhere.

I’ll take a chance then that this is a venue Shane can thrive at and put the demons behind him from earlier this year.

ALEX NOREN  33/1 –1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Continuing with the Wentworth theme next up for me is Alex Noren.

A two time winner at the Surrey track, most recently last year, Noren should certainly be on the radar if you are ever looking at a Wentworth connection.

That win last autumn was part of a tremendous run of form Alex had in Europe last year as he also landed the trophy at the British Masters.

A prolific winner in Europe Noren is still though yet to bag a title on the PGA Tour, something I am sure he is desperate to do, so I don’t expect any lack of motivation this week.

After a quietish start to 2026 the Swede has really found his stride of late posting two top tens in his last four starts while he hasn’t missed a cut since January.

The most recent of those top tens came at the Memorial where everything seemed to click as he ranked 21^st off the tee, 18^th in approach, ninth around the green and 15^th in putting. Furthermore a rank off 14^th in putting for the season certainly bodes well allowing for the fact that a strong flat stick was key here last year.

Alex missed the cut here last year however he had only returned to action a month prior following injury and was struggling to regain form. This year he arrives in a completely different frame of mind no doubt.

The Swede is certainly riding high at the moment and I can see a big performance from him here this week.

MAC MEISSNER -  55/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

Next cab of the rank for me this week is Mac Meissner.

Meissner is a player who is no doubt on many short lists for maidens who could break through this year on the PGA Tour, mine included, and this looks a great opportunity for him.

2026 was fairly ho-hum for Mac early on however after the tour headed to his native Texas in April he finished a solid 28^th in Houston and hasn’t looked back since, making seven straight cuts and posting three top tens along the way.

Looking at those finishes he was ninth at Myrtle Beach, which for what it’s worth gives us a nice line with Fox from last year while he was also third at Colonial. Add that to his fifth at Colonial in 2024 and runner up finish at the Wyndhan last year and it would seem Meissner does a lot of his best work on par 70 lay outs which is what we have this week.

Mac finished down the field at Memorial last week, however, despite missing the cut here last year, this looks a much better test for his skill sets.

Meissner failed to qualify for the US Open at the recent sectional qualifying in Texas so he has no distractions on that front this week and this looks a great opportunity for him to bag a maiden tour title.

ANDREW PUTNAM– 80/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I will take a chance on Andrew Putnam.

I have to be honest with just one PGA Tour win to his name at an opposite field event nearly eight years ago Putnam is a player I tend to gloss over most weeks.

Of late however he has been playing some sneakily good stuff with no missed cuts in solo events since February and with two top fives in the year, so it may just be time for him to strike again.

With his strong play this year Putnam has played his way in to a some signature events and has performed solidly in them, meaning he arrives in Canada sat a strong 57^th in the Fedex standings. He will know then that if he can have a good summer and even bag a win he could get himself in to the conversation for a top 30 Fedex finish and all the riches, which come with it.

Fifth in tour on driving accuracy Andrew is also strong on the greens, a combination he put to good use when sixth here last year, a result, which came when he was in no great form.

Returning this year in far better shape then he looks primed for a big week.

ADAM HADWIN –  225/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10

Finally I will roll the dice at big odds on one Canadian, Adam Hadwin.

Hadwin’s fall from grace over the past 12 months has been nothing short of spectacular, going from being in all the Signature Events at the start of 2025 to losing his card at the end of the year was tough to fathom.

Credit to Adam though he hasn’t let his head drop and he is now back on the Korn Ferry Tour looking to regain his card.

Since finishing second in the first Korn Ferry event of the year it certainly hasn’t all been plain sailing on that front, however of late he has shown some promising signs finishing 13^th and then seventh at the weekend. In between those starts he also got an outing on the PGA Tour at the Byron Nelson where although he missed the cut he posted a 66 on Friday.

Promising signs then and of course this week he has an opportunity not only to shine on home turf but to make a big cheque and change the course of his career.

Unlike many Canadians Adam has shown over the years that he can actually raise his game when playing at home notching three top tens and a 12^th in 14 starts in the event. Interestingly as well he played solidly last year here to finish 27^th a result which after an early season top ten in Phoenix remained his best finish until November in Bermuda.

Returning this year then perhaps in better shape amidst some decent recent play he could just surprise a few. A win of course would be a huge ask and an unlikely fairytale but at the odds on offer I’d happily take a place.