US Open

The US Open

For want of sounding like a stuck record it was unfortunately another disappointing week for us in Canada.

Heading in to Sunday we had opportunities with both Shane Lowry who started four back and our big priced play Adam Hadwin who was in striking distance of the places.

Sadly though both struggled on the final day with Lowry once again particularly disappointing when it mattered.

Congratulations though to Bud Cauley who finally bagged his first PGA Tour win. Allowing for the trauma Bud has gone through over the years following his well documented life threatening car accident this was a triumph for perseverance and no one will begrudge him the win.

Anyway it’s time to move on and what a cracking week we have ahead of us to move on to.

It’s time for the third Major of the season, The US Open and the much awaited return to Shinnecock Hills.

One of the jewels in the USGA’s crown this will be the sixth US Open at Shinnecock Hills. The previous were in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004 & 2018.

Shinnecock’s reputation as one of the most feared on the rota certainly proceeds itself.

For those who don’t remember that far back the 2004 event became notorious for when the USGA’s obsession to get firm and fast conditions lead to them ‘losing’ the greens as they became all but unplayable.

The most memorable example of this was the 7^th hole which saw the first four players through on Sunday make three triple bogeys and a bogey between them.

As a result of this a decision was taken to water the 7^th green after each further group came through.

Meanwhile in 2018 so frustrated was Phil Mickelson with the pin positions and pace of the greens that he putted a moving ball, hopefully there will be no repeat of these shenanigans!

As to be expected of course with a Major championship the field this week is a stellar one.

Scottie Scheffler of course heads up the market followed by Rory McIlroy. This duo are then followed by John Rahm, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood.

COURSE

Shinnecock Hills is a links style course situated in the North East of the USA in Southampton, Long Island, New York.

Originally put together as an 18 hole course in 1894 it is noted as being the first links course in the USA.

As noted earlier Shinnecock Hills first hosted a US Open in 1896.

In 1937 the course then underwent it’s first redesign under the supervision of William Flynn.

Fast forward to the modern day and In view of the impending US Open the course underwent a further redesign in 2012 under the supervision of Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore.

This however does not complete the story as following last years non event at Erin Hills Mike Davis, the USGA’s Executive Director, was contacted by a concerned Ray Floyd.

Floyd a former champion and long time member at Shinnecock Hills basically advised that unless something was done 2018 at Shinnecock would be “Erin Hills on steroids” with regards to the test, or lack if it’ the players would face in relation to the width of the fairways and driving accuracy.

As a result of this almost immediately further renovations took place to reduce the width of the fairways. This was done by removing turf from the side of fairways and replacing it with strips of fescue sod which was removed from Shinnecock’s 9 hole par three course.

So after all the fun and games what are we left with?

Well to sum up Shinnecock Hills will now play as a Par 70 measuring 7445 yards.

The greens are Poa Annua. This in theory will favour those players who perform better on Poa on the West Coast.

The average fairway width is now 41.6 yds. It should be noted that this is still about 50% wider than what the players faced in 2004 when the widest fairway was 30yds and the narrowest 25.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the recent winners then going back to 2015.

2025 JJ Spaun

2024 Bryson Dechambeau

2023 Wyndham Clark

2022 Matt Fitzpatrick

2021 Jon Rahm

2020 Bryson Dechambeau

2019 Gary Woodland

2018 Brooks Koepka

2017 Brooks Koepka

2016 Dustin Johnson

2015 Jordan Spieth

So what does this tell us? Well the first thing to say of course is that with the US Open operating a course rotation system it is usually a lot tougher to identify the type of player you are looking for year in year out compared to at Augusta, or at the British Open where you know you are getting a coastal links course.

In this major though you can go from a wide open links type test one year to a narrow fairway ball strikers course the next. In addition you can also get different green types dependent on the area of the US the event is being played in.

As a result over the years as examples we have seen Jordan Spieth prosper on a more exposed coastal links type track, we have seen Rose’s elite ball striking rewarded at Merion, we have seen Dustin Johnson be last man standing at a traditional US Open type test here, we have seen Koepka start his Major lovefest by bombing his way to victory at Erin Hills and we have seen Dechambeau use his length off the tee and brute strength to overpower Winged Foot. We have seen Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick bag his first major at courses we already knew they loved and finally most recently we saw JJ Spaun triumph on a brutal test that rewarded his accuracy.

Whilst the skill sets and the style of player we are looking for might vary to a certain extent year in year out one thing that does connect the recent winners in that they were all having good seasons and in decent form coming in to the event.

Lets look at this in a bit more detail.

Webb Simpson had posted a top 5 finish a few weeks prior at the Wells Fargo Championship and Rose had pieced together four top tens including two top 5s on the PGA Tour that year. Rory had finished 5^th at Memorial on his previous start, Koepka had made his last 6 cuts which included a 2^nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open in 2017 and he had finished second a fortnight before winning in 2018 at Fort Worth. DJ meanwhile had done everything but win prior to his victory in 2016 with seven Top 5 finishes in the year including two in his previous two starts.

Spieth, Kaymer and McDowell had all posted victories on tour that year already, whether in the US or in Europe, the 2019 winner Gary Woodland had finished eighth at the PGA Championship two starts prior to victory and most recently Bryson Dechambeau had produced a top five finish at the PGA Championship a month prior to his success.

While Rahm had not won on the PGA Tour in 20/21 prior to his triumph he had been robbed of a victory when holding a six shot lead at Memorial in his previous start through 54 holes at the Memorial before his enforced covid WD and had been eighth at the recent PGA.

2023 champion Wyndham Clark had landed his maiden PGA Tour win just a few weeks before at Quail Hollow. In 2024 Dechambeau triumphed having been runner up at the PGA Championship two starts prior.

Finally last year JJ Spaun triumphed having posted a sixth place finish two starts prior at Colonial.

Picking up on Rahm finishing eighth at the PGA it is worth noting that until 2023 since the PGA moved to being played pre US Open the four winners of the US Open in 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022, Woodland, Dechambeau, Rahm and Fitzpatrick had all finished top ten at the PGA. This run was broken in 2023 by Clark who missed the cut at Oak Hill in the PGA after his win at Quail Hollow, however Bryson continued this trend in 2024 with a second place at the PGA before bagging his second US Open. The trend was then broken again by Spaun last year who had finished 37^th at the PGA.

So in summary everyone of the US Open winners noted above had either had a victory or at least one top 5 finish on tour that season [In Bryson’s case in 2020 the top five at the PGA was in the previous season as the US Open was the second event of the official 20/21 calendar] and I expect this mantra of ‘good form coming in’ to stand true again this time around.

Whilst it is more than likely the event will be won by a bigger named player it’s worth pointing out that the US Open in recent years has seen a bunch of big three figure priced players make the frame and of course Spaun win last year.

These include Carlos Ortiz last year, Mattieu Pavon in 2024, Denny McCarthy in 2023, Chesson Hadley in 2019, Harman, Schauffele and Fleetwood in 2017 [yup Tommy & Xander were still going off at triple digits back then!], Lowry, Piercy and Na the year before and Cam Smith the year before that.

Go back a bit further and we saw Eric Compton finishing 2^nd and Michael Thompson and now Real Estate Agent John Peterson making the frame at The Olympic Club, while in 2010 when Graeme McDowell was victorious at Pebble Beach unheralded Frenchman Gregory Havret chased him home.

In 2020 this was not so much the case although Will Zalatoris did make the frame at big odds however it is worth noting that 2020 did not see the opportunity for players to qualify in the same way as normal and this will no doubt have led to a more predictable flavour at the top of the leaderboard.

Again in 2021 this was not the case as the top ten was packed with big names/in form players such as Oosthuizen, English, Morikawa, Koepka, McIlroy, Schauffele, Berger and Scheffler, with only really Migliozzi and to a lesser extent Grace, breaking this stranglehold.

As a whole though the message over the years has been clear, with some bookies going 10 or 11 places e/w don’t be afraid to back a big three figure priced player e/w if you have a hunch for them.

WEATHER FORECAST

It’s been a pretty dry lead up to the event and as things stand while there is potential for showers over the week on Wednesday & Thursday we look set for firm, fast conditions.

Temperatures look set to sit around the low 70s.

The wind looks set to play its part I am pleased to say with gusts above 20mph across the week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

 I have gone with 5 players as follows;

XANDER SCHAUFFELE – 20/1 – 2.5pts E/W – 1/5^th odds 1^st 8.

First up for me this week is Xander Schauffele.

Xander struggled through much of 2025 after the start of his year was derailed by injury.

He returned to the winners enclosure though in his final event of the year in the Baycurrent Classic out in Japan.

On to 2026 then and after a quiet first couple of events normal service has been resumed with Xander, with him delivering his trademark level of ultra consistent results.

If we look at his results since Pebble Beach in early February he has made 10 starts posting five top tens. Furthermore two of these top tens have come in the years first two Majors giving us that strong PGA finish, which often is a pointer to the winner here.

If we then look at the two time Major Champion’s stats for the year and we can see that his all round game is thriving as he ranks 13^th from tee to green and a solid 48^th in putting.

Everything in great working order then for Xander but the real clincher is of course his Major record and specifically his US Open record.

A look at his record in this Major shows us that in nine starts he has never finished worse than 14^th while he has notched an incredible seven top tens along the way.

Finally one of those top tens came when sixth here in 2018.

We can then add to the fact that as an Open winner and something of a Kapalua specialist we certainly know Schauffele is more than proficient in the wind.

To sum up then Xander arrives in strong form, has the perfect all round game for a US Open test and we know he has positive course form at Shinnecock. All in all then he fits the bill perfectly for me this week.

TYRRELL HATTON – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up I will return to the well with Tyrell Hatton.

I sided with Tyrell at the PGA Championship and it is fair to say that he disappointed that week missing the cut. Prior to that though he had played excellently to finish third at Augusta so he does have good strong Major form this year.

Hatton as we know has a reputation of someone who can lose his cool on the course however somewhat contradictory, this actually belies his propensity to go well on the toughest of tests. Perhaps it is a case that his frustration levels and how he deals with them on the course stay the same for this type of week compared to any other week, whereas with other players they lose their cool more!

Whatever the reason may be Tyrell showed us when fourth at Oakmont last year that he can handle the most brutal of tests. In addition we don’t need to speculate on his ability to handle this weeks test as he was sixth here back in 2018.

It will also stay long in my memory how he hung tough to triumph at a brutal rock hard windy Bay Hill in 2020.

A proven links specialist we certainly don’t need to worry about the Englishman’s ability to handle the wind this week.

Tyrrell arrives here having recently become a Father while he bagged the trophy last time out on LIV at Valderrama. Clearly then all is good with life for Tyrrell both on and off the course at the moment and I believe he has a great chance this week to land a third consecutive Major this year for the UK.

CHRIS GOTTERUP –  45/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

My next selection this week is Chris Gotterup.

Having bagged an early tour win by the coast at the opposite field event at Myrtle Beach Gotterup really broke through last year when bagging the Scottish Open title before following it up with a third place at the Open the following week.

A possessor of a low ball flight ideal for windy conditions the performances in the UK certainly marked our card that Chris is a player who can thrive on the links.

Moving on to this year then and far from regressing like many players do after a career break out year Chris has pushed on bagging two titles already, another by the coast at the Sony Open and then a few weeks later in Phoenix.

Chris cooled off marginally after the win in Phoenix however since finishing sixth in Houston he has only finished outside of the top 25 once in seven starts.

Furthermore he bagged a 10^th place finish in the PGA, which on the back of a 24^th on debut at Augusta and of course his third at the Open, shows he is really getting comfortable in the Major arena.

On to this week then and in addition to Chris’ known prowess on the links we have the added bonus that he hails from the North East of the US so this week will be something of a home game for him. While I don’t have any concrete evidence of this then I am sure the American will have had plenty of looks at Shinnecock Hills over time.

Gotterup is a player whose trajectory is very much on the up and on a course that should play to his strengths it is not a big leap to see him landing his first Major here.

RYAN GERARD – 100/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 8.

If we are to have another under the radar winner here this year in the JJ Spaun mould there is every possibility that Ryan Gerard could be the man to deliver it.

Gerard’s lone tour win to date came in the Barracuda last year however it is clearly only a matter of time until he adds to that.

Ryan started 2026 by finishing runner up to the aforementioned Gotterup in Hawaii when we were onboard. He then backed that up with another second at the Amex when we were onboard once again!

After cooling off somewhat Ryan has played solidly since finishing 38^th at the Masters however more recently he has found his mojo again finishing 10^th at the Charles Schwab, before another agonising runner up finish at the Memorial when losing out in a play off to JT Poston last time out.

The key to Ryan’s consistency can be seen in his stats across the board, he ranks seventh in approach play, 39^th from tee to green and 27^th in putting this year.

Gerard first came on our radar when finishing fourth at the Cognizant after Monday Qualifying in 2023. Add that to the fact that he thrived in the windy conditions in Mauritius last December when runner up and we know he is comfortable in the wind.

Ryan has an eighth place finish on his resume in the PGA last year so he has some Major pedigree already and I can see him getting right in the hunt at big odds this week.

NICO ECHAVARRIA –  175/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 12

Finally this week I will roll the dice on Nico Echavarria.

Nico can certainly not be accused of being consistent however when the mood takes him he is very much a force to be reckoned with as his three PGA Tour wins show us.

Key to this week is that Nico very much comes in to his own on when by the coast/in windy conditions as well as producing most of his best stuff on par 70 layouts.

His win this year came at the Cognizant on a par 70 which you would certainly see as a positive pointer for this week while he has also won by the coast in Puerto Rico.

He was also eighth at Pebble Beach earlier this year.

Meanwhile he was second last year at the Sony on another coastal par 70 layout while more recently just two starts ago he was sixth on a par 70 at Colonial.

Like I say you never really know what to expect from Nico however he has the propensity to make plenty of birdies so if he can keep the really big numbers off the card this week he could just make enough birdies to stick around on a course, which should suit him and threaten the frame at big odds.